Buffalo Sabres Player Projections: Johan Larrson
The Buffalo Sabres have given the defensive-minded forward one more season to prove his worth – will he make the cut?
Johan Larsson is never going to be a top-6 forward.
There: I said it. For many of you, that statement is pretty obvious, along the same lines as me saying “These are the worst two Presidential candidates this country has had on over a century.”
However, there are some fans out there who are wishing that Larsson, who was acquired by the Buffalo Sabres in a trade with the Minnesota Wild back in 2013, will find his offensive game in 2016-17 and make a legitimate case for top-6 minutes, and while I like Larsson, such a projection seems entirely unrealistic.
Having said that, there is a spot for Larsson on the Buffalo Sabres roster. Sure, his contract was only extended until the end of the upcoming season, so the young Swede is definitely facing a do-or-die season with the Sabres, but if Larsson is able to carry the momentum he built at the end of 2015-16 forward, he should be in a good position to negotiate a multi-year contract next summer.
Player: Johan Larsson
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2015-16 stats: 10-7-17, -4 in 74 games played
Larsson started the 2015-16 with an offensive dry spell – and by dry spell, I mean “Couldn’t score to save his life.” Larsson had only 7 points in the first 56 games of the season, with November through January being absolutely brutal. How brutal? Larsson scored only two points in that stretch – two! That’s only two more than I scored during that stretch, and I spent those months in a classroom, so what is his excuse?
No matter – Larsson developed solid chemistry playing alongside Marcus Foligno and Brian Gionta on the third line, and he finished the season scoring 10 points in 18 games. Despite his scoring struggles, he actually finished the season with career highs in goals (10) and points (17) – not enough to earn a multi-year contract, mind you, but a sign that he has found the right guys to play alongside.
The HERO Chart
Oof. Ignore the offensive production side of the HERO chart that Own The Puck created – that’s just ugly. His offense is never going to blow you away, but he will need to at least top 20 points in 2016-17 if he wants to continue his career with the squad.
Instead, remember the sort of player Larsson is: a defensive-minded forward who racked up 113 hits last season and can really disrupt what the other teams wants to do when he is committed to playing hard. He proved to be pretty reliable in the faceoff circle, winning 51.1% of his draws. When he is committed to the forecheck and backcheck, he is Buffalo’s best option at center on the third line. Based on his possession numbers, it’s interesting to envision him playing alongside Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart, but all-in-all, with a bit more consistent offense, Larsson should help the Sabres’ third line become a bit more formidable in 2016-17.
Projection: 13-15-28
Next: Is Jake McCabe Ready For Bigger Minutes?
The Buffalo Sabres may have thought they were getting a potential top-6 forward when they traded for Johan Larsson, but it’s pretty obvious he’s destined for a third-line role. That’s fine – his style of play is built for such a role. The spot alongside Foligno and Gionta appears to be Larsson’s to keep, but his offensive touch needs to remain consistent in 2016-17; he cannot disappear for months at a time, no matter how strong he is in the possession game. Sabres fans love Larsson, so here’s hoping he tops 20 points for the first time in his career and earns himself a more permanent spot on the roster.