Buffalo Sabres 2016-17 Atlantic Division Preview
As a busy Buffalo Sabres offseason continues, we take a look at the competitive landscape of the Atlantic division and make our predictions about where each team will rank in the upcoming NHL season.
Though the Buffalo Sabres roster saw minimal changes this offseason, the team most certainly benefited as a whole in taking a step forward in terms of experience, as they’re still a fairly young team. Many of them were playing together for the very first time last season, and much of the experimentation in building chemistry should give way this year to more consistent lines and a more systematic approach to the game.
Of course, the additions of Kyle Okposo and Dmitry Kulikov, as well as the subtraction of Mark Pysyk, combined with the added potential of one of our younger prospects to claim a roster spot this year, the team will look slightly different in appearance. But that’s the name of the game, and all teams in the league are doing whatever they can to re-tool, some with more success than others, but all with the same lofty goal in mind.
With training camps set to begin next month, I thought it would be a good time to take a look at our competitors, to see what changes they’ve made and how things are shaping up in the Atlantic division. Ultimately, the Sabres finished second to last in the division with 81 points last season, but for them to move up in the rankings, other teams will, inevitably, have to slide down. So, here’s my preview of the Atlantic division for the 2016-17 season
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Note: The teams on this list appear in the order of where they finished in the 2015-16 season, but I’ve also included my predictions on where they will rank at the end of 2016-17.
Florida Panthers
Of all the teams in the Atlantic division, the Florida Panthers concern me the most. While the rest of the league was looking the other way, they’ve been quietly building up an army, and after claiming the division title and ranking third overall in the Eastern Conference last season, the Panthers have proved they’re not a fluke, but legitimate playoff contenders. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if the Panthers made a statement by naming Aaron Ekblad their captain, and fresh off an eight-year, $60M contract, they’ve made abundantly clear their commitment to him. Ekblad is poised to become one of the premier defenseman in the entire National Hockey League, having already won a Calder Trophy and scored a combined 27 goals in his first two seasons. He’s the centerpiece of a Panthers defense that was re-tooled this offseason with a focus on special teams, an area in which the Panthers struggled last year, but the signings of free agents Keith Yandle and Jason Demers will go a big way in helping that. Factor Mark Pysyk into the equation and Florida’s defense looks fundamentally sound. Next, we move on to their offense, led by the Finnish-born center Aleksander Barkov, who had
28 goals and 31 assists despite playing in only 66 games. It doesn’t end there, as the Panthers offense is spread out over a range of contributing players such as Jagr, Jokinen, Huberdeau, Trocheck and Smith, all of whom had over 50 points. Roberto Luongo has been solid between the pipes, but his age and minor hip-surgery over the offseason could affect his performance in the upcoming season, so the Panthers went out and signed goalie James Reimer. Every which way, the Florida Panthers are solid and will be very difficult to beat.
Predicted Atlantic Division Ranking: 1
Tampa Bay Lightning
With one more important player to get signed in forward Nikita Kucherov, Lightning GM Steve Yzerman may prove to be the most efficient GM in the game today. Now that the ‘big fish’ has chosen to remain in the warm waters of the continental southeast, the Tampa Bay Lightning are hungrier than ever to get back to the quest for a championship. In fact, I have to believe this is a significant reason Stamkos decided to stay, as he knows what this team is capable of, and had he left, he might never have been in that position again. Like Ovechkin, Stamkos is feeling the weight of the seasons that have already passed on by, and though he’s only 26 years old, he’ll be entering his ninth season in the NHL. At some point, especially when facing the injuries and the scare with blood clots towards the end of last season, the desire to win a Stanley Cup becomes more important than the money being dangled in your face. Having signed Killorn, Vasilevsky, Hedman, Stamkos and eventually Kucherov as well, the Tampa Bay Lightning retain the same core of players that already once made it to the Stanley Cup Finals. They have all the pieces in place to do it again, and two amazing goalies to boot – 2016-17 could be their year.
Predicted Atlantic Division Ranking: 2
Detroit Red Wings
Allow me to say first that it’s unfortunate we won’t be able to watch Pavel Datsyuk play in North America anymore (except for the 2016 World Cup of Hockey, which could be the Russian centers last hurrah); but with that said, I found it remarkable that Ken Holland was able to move Datsyuk’s contract so quickly. The Red Wings acquired a few players in an effort to help fill the inexorable void that was left, but I feel that Datsyuk was an essential support beam in the structure of the Red Wings organization, and without him, I don’t feel like it’s quite the same team. The Wings leading scorer was Henrik Zetterberg, who managed to put up 50 points at age 35, and aside from Dylan Larkin, I just don’t see where the Red Wings are going to make up the ground.
The signing of free agent Frans Nielsen was a good fit, but I question the mentality of signing Thomas Vanek and Steve Ott, though it’s entirely possible they missed out on other players and in the end had to settle for whatever was left. Unless Ken Holland can swing some impactful trades in order to revitalize his team, we could very well see the 25-year post-season streak finally come to its emotional end. The Red Wings also need help on defense, so it’s possible we could see some additional moves, but in order to get a big name defenseman they would likely have to give up a lot. I know there are some who would disagree with me or believe the Red Wings will once again find a way, but the removal of Datsyuk is like the removal of the final block before the tower begins to wobble and collapse. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but all good things must eventually come to an end.
Predicted Atlantic Division Ranking: 8
Boston Bruins
The Bruins are a little bit of a question mark this year, but unless Brad Marchand can duplicate his anomalous 37 goal performance from last season, I don’t see the Bruins making much progress in climbing the Atlantic division standings. The question starts first and foremost with Zdeno Chara, and whether he can still help his team more than he can potentially hinder it. The 39-year-old, 6’9 defensemen still managed to put up 37 points in 80 games, but at times it appeared that fatigue was getting to him, and one has to believe retirement is not far away. Torey Krug is the next best defenseman in line, though I’m not sure they can lean on him as a number one. Up front, the Bruins will need to find a way to make up for the 30 goals Loui Eriksson scored, and while the signing of David Backes will help, I don’t think his production value will be quite as high. Backes, however, will most certainly help in other ways, as his gritty style of play is perfect for the Bruins, but more important is the experience and leadership he brings that will help to mentor a wealth of prospects. So, this season could end up being a wash for the Boston Bruins, as they give their younger players more time to develop.
Predicted Atlantic Division Ranking: 7
Ottawa Senators
Two of my favorite players growing up were Alexei Yashin and Daniel Alfredsson, and because of that, I have a bit of a soft spot when it comes to the Ottawa Senators. Most Sabres fans probably don’t agree with me, mainly because Alfredsson had a knack for scoring big time goals against the Sabres, though you have to admit he was fun to watch. On the current Senators roster there is much to like as well, starting with another Swedish-born player and Ottawa captain, Erik Karlsson. With the season Karlsson had, there may have been some surprise that he didn’t win yet another Norris, as his 66 assists led the NHL and his 82 points was tied for fourth overall – and this as a defenseman remember. The next closest player on the Senators roster was Mark Stone, with 61 points total, just to give you an idea of how valuable Karlsson really is to this team. But while he thrives offensively, there’s also been some criticism of his defensive game, so the Sens traded for Dion Phaneuf late last year to help solidify the back end.
Special teams were also a disappointment for Ottawa, and they felt the need to address that situation as well with the recent trade of Mika Zibanejad to the Rangers in exchange for Derick Brassard. Brassard is a good two-way player with playoff experience, and he led the Rangers in goals as well. He should help on the PP and the PK, and should be an essential piece in a push for the playoffs. If Ottawa can get all players firing together on all cylinders they should be able to reach the post-season. They need another strong showing from Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone and a full season from Kyle Turris. In short, don’t underestimate the Senators this year.
Predicted Atlantic Division Ranking: 3
Montreal Canadiens
The Habs could potentially go either way this year, and it will once again hinge on Carey Price. To be honest, it’s a difficult spot for a goalie to be in, knowing that without you the team is only mediocre at best, that most likely you will need to stand on your head if your team has any chance of winning a cup. I feel for Carey, I really do, and I feel for the fans after losing Subban, but maybe Weber and Markov can hold down the defense well enough to let Price catch his breath now and then. It’ll be strange to see a Canadiens team without P.K., and even more strange to see Shea Weber in a Canadiens sweater, but the Habs do have some bright spots as well. Up until last season, I wasn’t quite sure Alex Galchenyuk was going to live up to the hype, but a stellar 2015-16 season eliminated any doubt from my mind. His point totals have gone up successively in the last four years, reaching the 30 goal plateau for the first time in his career, along with the Canadiens captain, Max Pacioretty, who led the team in points as well. I’m not quite ready to rule out Montreal, though I have a hard time seeing them at the top of the pack, and they’ve added something of a wild card to the equation by signing one of the best KHL players in Alexander Radulov. Who knows yet whether or not it will work out, but along with Andrew Shaw and Shea Weber, the Canadiens are a bit of a rougher team. Still, of all the teams in the Atlantic division, I think they’re going to be the most difficult to predict.
Predicted Atlantic Division Ranking: 5
Buffalo Sabres
Finally, we get to the Buffalo Sabres, and though it’s fair to say their stock will continue to rise, there are certainly some unanswered questions as well. Robin Lehner is the first and probably the most important of those questions. His is a two-part question really – with the first being how he’ll respond after coming back from season-ending surgery, and the second being whether or not he has the makings of a number one goalie in the NHL. The 21 games he did play in last season gave the fans a little taste of what to expect, but it’s a complete unknown until the season is underway as to whether he can be the Sabres number one guy. If not, the Sabres no longer have Chad Johnson to hold down the fort in the interim, but at the same time, at the start of last season I bet no one thought that Chad Johnson would be quite that good. Goaltending can be a tricky subject, but if not Lehner, the responsibility would fall to Anders Nilsson, who’s played less than half the amount of games that Robin Lehner has played in the NHL (to be clear, that’s not a lot). The other option would be Linus Ullmark, unless they want to give a shot to Notre Dame goalie Cal Petersen. As of right now, the job is Lehner’s to lose.
Switching gears, there’s been a lot of criticism of late that the Sabres lack defensive depth, but the asking price for a top-4 defenseman, considering what the Sabres have, is probably steep. I can only imagine what conversations took place behind closed doors about Cam Fowler or whether that’s still an option being considered. Regardless, there’s still the positive strides that Ristolainen has made in distinguishing himself, and increased minutes for Jake McCabe should help ease some of that defensive burden. Bogosian and Kulikov will be the key elements in determining the Sabres defensive success this year, as both were highly touted players that haven’t quite lived up to projections yet. The offense, with the addition of Kyle Okposo, should most certainly break new ground this year, and I’d look for the Sabres Power Play to end the season in the latter half of the top ten. Finally, we’ll just have to wait and see if this Evander Kane situation blows over or not. With or without, I still think the Sabres are on track to have a successful season.
Predicted Atlantic Division Ranking: 4
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs should definitely be a more exciting team to watch this year, if for no other reason than Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander. These are the top three players in one of the deepest prospect pools hockey, rivaled only by maybe the Arizona Coyotes. With the Maple Leafs Centennial season coming up, they’re looking to start the next page on the right foot, and since they now have a franchise center locked-up, they can focus on winning again. With this in mind, and the rebuild going faster than expected, Toronto traded for goalie Frederick Andersen, who along with John Gibson finished an excellent season with the Anaheim Ducks.
Like the Sabres, I think Toronto has some work to do defensively, and much of this season for them will be about gaining experience, allowing the younger players to become acclimated to life in the NHL. Still, they’ve added some grit and experience with Matt Martin, Milan Michalek, and former Washington Capital Brooks Laich, but what they really need now is goal-scoring, something they struggled to find last year with only one player reaching the 20 goal milestone, a player that is longer on the team (Parenteau). The fate of JVR and Joffrey Lupul is still being mulled over by those in the Leafs head office, but I think the Maple Leafs may surprise some people next year and do better than expected. After a slow start, I think they’ll make the jump as one of the better teams over the latter half of the season.
Predicted Atlantic Division Ranking: 6
Next: Sabres Player Projections: Kyle Okposo
There you have it, my Atlantic division review for the upcoming 2016-17 season. Here’s a quick list all in one place of my predictions:
1-Florida Panthers
2-Tampa Bay Lightning
3-Ottawa Senators
4-Buffalo Sabres
5-Montreal Canadiens
6-Toronto Maple Leafs
7-Boston Bruins
8-Detroit Red Wings