Buffalo Sabres Are Playing With Fire Even As They Make A Playoff Push

A strong showing in 2017 has the Buffalo Sabres knocking on heaven’s door, but there are some disturbing trends that will continue to keep this team out of the playoffs if not addressed immediately.

The Buffalo Sabres notched a huge road win Tuesday evening in Ottawa, flipping a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 victory thanks to some familiar heroes (Ryan O’Reilly) and some not-so-familiar ones (Justin Bailey, who scored his first ever NHL game-winner).

With the win, the Sabres are now tied with the Florida Panthers and the New Jersey Devils at 58 points, which is just 5 points behind the Toronto Maple Leafs for the second and last wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. This is a good thing, Sabres fans: the Sabres’ February and probably even March slate of games actually mean something this season!

If you look at more just points, though, you realize that the Buffalo Sabres still have a lot working against them – they have played more games than every other team fighting for a wild card spot, and realistically need to secure at least 32 more points in their remaining 25 games to even have a snowball’s chance. Trying to win more points than your opponents when you have fewer games left on your schedule is a bitch, to say the least, but yes, it can be done . . .

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. . . but there are some disturbing trends these Sabres have embraced that should worry fans in the 716 (and those of you who have been displaced!). Both of these trends were on display yet again Tuesday evening in Ottawa, which makes Buffalo’s win a bit of a miracle.

For starters, Buffalo fans are used to seeing the Sabres get outshot, out worked, and out scored in the second period of games. To their credit, the Sabres appeared ready to put an end to this trend in Ottawa, as they outshot the Senators 7-2 to start the middle frame. Then, a shift went on too long, a turnover resulted, and lo and behold, the Sabres found themselves down 2-1 . . . and then things got even worse, as Buffalo allowed 14 unanswered shots from their opponents.

That goal makes Buffalo -23 in the second period this season, worst in the NHL – yeah! Allow that to sink in: the Buffalo Sabres are effectively giving away the second period to their opponents on a nightly basis, and then hoping they can comeback in the third. Granted, the Sabres have established themselves as comeback artists – Tuesday’s victory was Buffalo’s seventh win of the season when trailing after two periods, tied with Pittsburgh and Montreal for tops in the NHL – but giving away the second period is not a recipe for success, especially when you cannot afford to lose any points at this stage of the season.

Adding to Buffalo’s problems is the fact that this team is absolutely terrible at shot suppression. Buffalo allows 34.2 shots per game, the most in the NHL and almost two full shots per game more than the Toronto Maple Leafs, who allow the third-most shots per game and who currently own the second wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. Looking at just how many shots a team allows per game doesn’t give you a complete picture – after all, the Pittsburgh Penguins allow 32 shots per contest, which is the 6th-highest total in the league, but the Penguins also average 34.3 shots themselves, which is the second-most in the league. What you have to look at then, is the shot differential – how many shots does a team allow, versus how many shots a team takes. This will give you a more accurate picture of whether a team is headed for long-term success . . .

. . . and, as you probably guessed, the Buffalo Sabres have one of the worst shot differentials in the NHL. The good news? The worst shot differential belongs to the Arizona Coyotes, who take 5.4 less shots per game (28.2) than they allow (33.6). Not surprising – the Coyotes are the second-to-last team in the entire NHL, after all – but right on their heels are the Buffalo Sabres, who take 4.6 shots less per game (29.6) than they allow.

Oof. And there are still people out there who want to bag on the Sabres’ starting goaltender? Robin Lehner is getting no shot support, people, so put that argument to bed once and for all.

All is not lost for the Sabres – 29.6 shots per game is not a terrible number, good for 20th in the league and better than the shot totals for Montreal, Ottawa, and Anaheim, all of whom are near locks to make the playoffs. Sure, the Sabres will benefit from squeezing off a few more shots – especially in a game like last night, where they got outshot 41-25 – but this is actually a case of killing two birds with one stone: tighten up the second period, and watch your shot differential improve immediately. No, these two trends are not going to reverse by the end of the season – Buffalo’s defensive corps is too weak to begin shutting down opposing offenses, and part of the reason the Sabres are having such a hard time with the long change is because there are so many young, inexperienced players on the roster who lose track of time and often try to do too much from an individual stand point – but fixing these problems does not require rocket science, just more discipline and effort.

You know – the sort of things every team needs to have if it wants to make the playoffs.

The Buffalo Sabres are literally a team that is withing striking distance of a playoff spot, despite having no business being anywhere other than the bottom of the conference based on how it allows the opposition to control games. They routinely gift their opposition the second period, and ask their goaltenders to stand out their heads night in and night out, two trends that do not bode well for regular season success. If the Sabres can reduce the severity of these two problems, fans might be able to enjoy a playoff-like atmosphere deep into the season for the first time in a while.

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