It may not be the popular or the preferred method among the Buffalo Sabres faithful, but Kevyn Adams is correct in building through the draft.
In October 2020, the Buffalo Sabres signed Taylor Hall to a one-year deal worth $8 million. Hall, who won the Hart Trophy and was a First Team All-Star just a few seasons before, might just have formed a dynamic duo with Jack Eichel and you could even have added Sam Reinhart to that mix.
During the 2019-20 season, Hall logged 52 points in 65 games, including 16 goals. Not off the charts numbers, but definitely productive. His signing with the Sabres shocked the world, and he further shocked everyone by falling flat on his face in Buffalo. In 37 games with the Sabres, Hall scored 17 points and two goals before the organization admitted their mistake and shipped him to Boston.
That trade was for a second round pick that led to the Sabres drafting Aleksandr Kisakov, and the rest is history. Goodbye, crazy, big-name, prize free agents. And hello, five-year plan. At the end of the day, it was a longer, but more correct view. The right view.
Why Kevyn Adams is right in building the Buffalo Sabres through the draft
Building through the NHL Draft undoubtedly takes longer, but there are far more advantages to it. For one, prospects can go through the same system if they earn a spot to play in North America. It lets players like Isak Rosen presumably team with the likes of Aleksandr Kisakov. Or for a recent example, Jack Quinn to pair with J.J. Peterka both in the AHL, and in the NHL.
Yes, they will be newcomers, but they have experience playing with one another. You couldn’t say the same for Hall back in 2020, who had to quickly mesh with the likes of Eichel and Reinhart. Clearly, it didn’t work.
Suppose Quinn and Peterka aren’t quite ready for the NHL out of training camp. Okay, cool. They will build chemistry with prospects with a chance of coming to Rochester like Rosen and Kisakov. No, none of the above will be NHL All-Stars any time soon. But they have chemistry playing together.
That’s what will make the NHL transition far less painful. They are all going to be newcomers eventually, but at least there are teammates they built chemistry with. Let’s explore this issue further.
2022 NHL Draft, Day 1
The Buffalo Sabres, as of 2:00pm on Thursday, July 7th, own three picks in the first round. Those three picks, if everyone signs and there are no perennial busts, will eventually cross paths, most likely in the AHL. At worst, they are already familiar, to some degree with the system and with one another. That beats signing a big-name free agent or making a big trade for someone with no familiarity here.
You can say the same for those drafted in Rounds 2 through 7. No, they won’t begin their career as Buffalo Sabres. Most won’t begin as Rochester Americans. But it doesn’t matter. These prospects are at least in the system and they know who they will most likely be teaming up with. There is at least some familiarity here.
Not that prize free agents don’t work – but when they are perennial busts, teams just wasted money on them. Luckily, Hall was just a one-year mistake, but imagine if the Sabres signed him to a long-term deal.
If a prospect ends up as a perennial bust, it’s not the end of the world. That’s why entry-level contracts exist. Wasting a pick is never fun, but unless you trade it away, you get to try again next season.
Better yet, unless teams traded away their picks, they typically get seven of them every year, which creates an incredible pool of prospects, signed and unsigned. The likelihood of hitting is much greater and at a much cheaper price than blockbuster trades or free agency.
The Alex Tuch-Peyton Krebs Trade
You all know the story. The Buffalo Sabres traded Jack Eichel and a third round pick in 2023 for Alex Tuch, Peyton Krebs, the 16th overall pick in 2022, and a second round pick in 2023. Blockbuster trade, right?
Yeah, kind of. But this is what you need to remember: Tuch was often stuck on the middle six while Krebs barely even played for Vegas, despite being a first round pick. Krebs was also a rookie, having played a grand total of 13 games with the Vegas Golden Knights, scoring just one assist. Krebs also, if you remember it right, spent time in Rochester before he debuted with the Sabres on December 29th.
Tuch was a solid, yet unspectacular player. Yeah, he carried a $4.75 million price tag. But other than that, he isn’t exactly what you’d call a guy expected to make a splash in Buffalo.
He did, but it’s safe to say Vegas expected far more out of Eichel, the supposed missing puzzle piece, than anyone in NHL spheres expected out of Tuch. Who was just 25 when he returned to his hometown.
So Kevyn Adams wasn’t necessarily the one making the splash here. The Knights were, and Eichel didn’t necessarily push them over the top. Instead, Vegas missed the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. Eichel’s cap hit for Vegas is $10 million a year, and he scored fewer points per game than Tuch did in 2021-22.
Draft first, supplement with trades and free agency
By building through the draft, Kevyn Adams also has a never-ending prospect pool at his disposal, and one that won’t cost a fortune. While it is true that we don’t know if any of the picks tonight, tomorrow, or even last season (Owen Power included), will ever pan out, we do know that building through the draft carries less risk and more reward.
We also don’t know if a prize free agent will ever pan out. But we also know that there is far more risk to pay a guy $8 to $10 million per season without knowing if he will ever become a great player, or even play to expectations.
Draft picks at least have a chance to mesh with one another before they enter the NHL, which pays dividends regarding team chemistry. Big-time free agents and trade acquisitions don’t.
That said, Adams is correct on taking this conservative approach. Even if the Buffalo Sabres don’t contend for the playoffs until 2023-24, it’s still worth taking this thing slow, and building for the long-term. We don’t know if it will work, but at least it won’t set the team back in cap space. It will also let the Sabres sign those draft picks that did pan out to long-term deals.
(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference)
Article Source: Sabres’ three first-round picks at NHL Draft present special opportunity by Bill Hoppe.