3 reasons why the Buffalo Sabres should not trade for Tkachuk
The Buffalo Sabres are surprisingly sitting with high odds to land Matthew Tkachuk via a trade. But don’t buy into the hype.
The Buffalo Sabres reportedly have good odds to land Matthew Tkachuk, per an article posted by WYRK. This gives them the fourth-highest odds of landing the 24-year-old winger. And although I laid out a trade scenario in a previous article, I did state that I do not believe a trade would happen.
Not only did I not believe the Buffalo Sabres would try to land Tkachuk; I felt they would be giving up too much from their talented prospect pool for the star player. In that trade scenario, I listed the likes of Ryan Johnson and Erik Portillo, a 2023 first round pick, and two 2023 second round picks.
Some have asked about Johnson and Portillo, who would be free agents if they didn’t sign following a potential trade. In this case, their representation (advisors) could be granted permission from the Sabres to talk to the Flames and the prospects would agree to sign in Calgary following their respective collegiate seasons before they trade for their rights.
Odds are, you could most likely add one forward and a young defenseman to that mix, with Casey Mittelstadt serving as the likeliest candidate with Mattias Samuelsson being the defenseman mentioned. And that brings me to the first reason the Sabres should not trade for Tkachuk.
Why the Buffalo Sabres should not trade for Matthew Tkachuk: Reason #1 – Too much trade compensation
Buffalo Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams has remained adamant on building through the draft. Meanwhile, the Calgary Flames have seen their offseason go up in flames, first losing Johnny Gaudreau before Tkachuk informed the franchise he would not sign a long-term deal with them.
They also have another three players likely heading to arbitration, meaning the Flames are likely going to start over again from scratch. And this means they are going to want prospects, prospects, and more prospects, either in the form of young NHL-ready players like Samuelsson, former first round picks like Mittelstadt, current prospects in the pool, and finally, draft picks.
Since he wants to build the organization through the draft, Adams would be going off-script completely if he were to try and trade for Tkachuk. Mittelstadt isn’t quite out of chances in Buffalo, and there is no way they would part with Samuelsson if Calgary demanded high-end prospects. Especially with Samuelsson likely to play on the first pairing with Rasmus Dahlin.
Team chemistry
The Buffalo Sabres showed immense chemistry in the waning months of the season, posting a 16-9-3 record (35 points). They became an exciting team to watch on most nights, even upsetting playoff contenders like the Pittsburgh Penguins. This leads us to the question: How well will this team mesh in 2022-23 now that they have a year under their belts?
It also leads to this question: Why bring in someone who has yet to build that chemistry with the current players?
This is why Kevyn Adams didn’t make a huge splash in free agency. He didn’t need to. These Sabres are young and yes, they missed the playoffs for an 11th straight season. But really, who cares? They showed in March and April that they are capable of hanging with and defeating pretty much anyone.
Trading for a star player like Tkachuk could cause turbulence in that chemistry. A ripple effect that will trickle down from the top scoring lines to the lower lines. The core of this franchise is intact and the chemistry is higher than it has been in years. Let’s keep it that way.
Cost
The Buffalo Sabres can definitely afford Tkachuk, who will be asking for something in the excess of $11 million. Problem is, the Sabres also need to think about re-signing their own players to extensions. Players like Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin, before they even think about bringing another marquee player on board.
The Sabres can build around Thompson, Dahlin, Alex Tuch, Peyton Krebs, and even Dylan Cozens, to name a few. They are all young and they need to be in Buffalo given the chemistry built late last season. All the aforementioned players listed except for Tuch will be due for extensions by the end of either the 2022-23, or the 2023-24 seasons.
Look for each of the above players to receive lucrative extensions. Something that would not be feasible if the Sabres traded for Matthew Tkachuk. Yeah, his statistics were great last season. But would he do the same in Buffalo?
It’s a mystery, considering variables like team chemistry. Odds are, Tkachuk will get permission to talk to teams he is interested in going to. Therefore, when he is traded, he would immediately sign a rich, long-term deal with his preferred team.
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For a team like the Sabres, that would be sacrificing a lot. Instead, let’s worry about re-signing our own cornerstones who already know one another’s tendencies.