Buffalo Sabres: Will Alex Tuch enjoy a breakout season?
Buffalo Sabres winger Alex Tuch has enjoyed decent outings. But he still has yet to truly break out. Is 2022-23 his year?
Alex Tuch is understandably a fan-favorite on the Buffalo Sabres. A local product, Tuch’s arrival in the Jack Eichel trade got the Sabres faithful talking, but his on-ice play was also promising as he became a regular fixture on the team’s first and second lines.
But, to be honest, Tuch’s season was not stellar. It showed a lot of upside, however, as he logged 0.76 points per game, the highest of his career. Tuch also notched a career high in average total on ice time at 18:25, over 1:30 more than his previous high of 16:50.
Will Buffalo Sabres winger Alex Tuch finally breakout in 2022-23?
Tuch’s 26 assists jumped out at me more than any other statistic. With just an 8.6 shooting percentage, he wasn’t the best scorer on the team. But having logged 0.52 assists per game, it shows you where he can be ultra-dangerous. Even if Tuch never evolves into an elite scorer, I would expect between 45 and 55 assists per season while he remains in his prime.
He did, however, record more shots on goal per game than in any other time in his career, with 2.78, which shattered his previous high of 2.58 that he set in 2020-21. Given his performance last season, some have called it a breakout year, but it was a good, solid season that has yet to place Tuch into the upper-echelon of NHL forwards.
Therefore, it was a step toward a breakout. But at this point, I can hardly claim that Tuch officially turned heads outside the Queen City. Give me at least 70 points, 45 assists and 25 goals to match. That’s a breakout season. And given Tuch’s numbers in 2021-22, the above should be attainable.
While the COVID-19 pandemic did not help, Tuch has also not played in over 70 games since 2018-19. So for a breakout to truly occur, he would also need to reach the 70-game threshold.
Why Alex Tuch will breakout in 2022-23
Though it did not happen, it seemed as though Tuch logged an assist every single time he stepped onto the ice – in reality, it was only about half the time, but still, 26 assists in 50 games is a decent number. Now that Tuch should be healthy for an entire season, look for that number to rise, at least to around 0.55 per game.
Tuch also has an uncanny ability to play defense, often using his 6’4, 222lb frame to his advantage. He is excellent at winning puck battles, evidenced by his 40 takeaways, or 0.8 takeaways per game. Tuch also doesn’t mind sacrificing the body, as his 49 blocks showed.
So besides his sheer offensive ability, you can also expect Tuch to turn heads in his defensive game. Just as I am projecting his points-per-game and number of assists to increase, I also believe he will do well in the takeaway/blocked shots column.
And if he plays defense like he did in 2018-19 (92 hits, 40 blocks, 69 takeaways), and it matches increased production on offense, I will say that Alex Tuch truly showed up as a player and that he will be with the Buffalo Sabres for a long, long time.
Why Alex Tuch will have a tough time breaking out in 2022-23
Tuch still needs to show that he can play in over 55 games per season and that he can stay healthy all year. While the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season did not help his cause, Tuch played in just 42 contests in 2019-20, and the COVID pandemic did not affect that number.
His shot selection has always been spotty, which explains his lower career shooting percentage of just 10.3. Here is an alarming stat: Victor Olofsson, who went three months without a goal, converted 12.2 percent of his shots. Jeff Skinner sat at 12.6 percent, and Tage Thompson, 15.0.
Last season, Tuch’s percentage sat at just 8.6. Dylan Cozens also noticeably struggled with converting shots on goal in 2021-22, and he ended the season with an 8.1 percentage. In short, Tuch faced the same issue time and again, and another season of a less-than-stellar shot selection could even keep Tuch off the top scoring line.
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Regardless of whether he truly breaks out as a player in 2022-23, Tuch will be a solid contributor for the Buffalo Sabres. What you saw last season will serve as the winger’s floor throughout his prime. So at worst, he is a solid second-line winger who even has the size and physicality to wind up on the checking line later in his career.
(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference)