Buffalo Sabres Player Projections: Sam Reinhart

Will arguably the Buffalo Sabres’ biggest surprise in 2015-16 continue to prove he is top-6 material in 2016-17?

The 2015-16 season may have been the season in which Jack Eichel, the second overall pick in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, proved he was a generational talent who is going to be the face of the franchise for some time, but it also was the surprise breakout season for another kid who was drafted with the second overall pick:: Sam Reinhart.

After being picked second in the 2014 draft, Reinhart spent nine forgettable games with the Buffalo Sabres in 2014, registering just one assist before he was sent down to play with the Kootenay Ice in the WHL.  Many fans of the blue and gold probably thought that Reinhart would spend most of the 2015-16 season in the AHL with the Rochester Americans . . . and boy, being wrong has never felt so good!

Reinhart enjoyed one hell of a rookie season, scoring 23 goals and finishing the season with 42 points, good for third-best on the Sabres.  Of course, Reinhart never really got the press he deserved, because Mr. Eichel was in the process of scoring 24-32-56 himself, but even if Reinhart did not garner much national attention, Sabres fans appreciated what they were seeing from Reino, and expect to see even more in 2016-17.

So will fans get what they want?

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Player: Sam Reinhart

2015-16 stats: 23-19-42, -8  in 79 games played.

Let’s get right to it: Reinhart would be the Buffalo Sabres’s number two center if not for Eichel, because he’s just that good.  Barring injuries, Reino will remain on Eichel’s right wing, and it’s hard to envision a scenario in which Eichel and Reino don’t combine for at least 100 points just on their own.

Some fans were surprised by how many spectacular passes Reinhart made last season, but don’t forget: he scored 11 points in seven games as the top center for the 2105 U20 World Junior Tournament Champions, Team Canada.   Having a playmaker like Reino alongside another playmaker such as Eichel?  Almost seems unfair, doesn’t it?

Reinhart should be even better in 2016-17 than he was last season, but don’t take my word for it!

The HERO Chart

Love them or hate them, HERO charts provide an easy-to-understand picture of how well a player performs on the ice, according to some telling advanced statistics.

For example, fans might be tempted to chalk up Reinhart’s success last season the fact that he played alongside a stud such as Eichel – but as you will notice, the Buffalo Sabres were better with Reino on the ice than they were off it, and that includes the time Reinhart spent playing alongside Ryan O’Reilly.  Obviously, Reinhart benefits from playing with Eichel, but the effect is reciprocal, so it’s entirely unfair to try and make the case that Reinhart is simply a product of his linemate.

Reinhart’s greatest contribution can be seen in the possession game.  While he still needs to get stronger and develop his game on the defensive end of the ice, Reinhart is leagues ahead of Eichel in terms of puck possession, and will have to spend another 1-2 seasons at least making up for his linemate’s weakness in this area.  In this regard, Eichel truly benefits more from playing with Reinhart than vice versa.

Some fans on other sites have pointed out that Reinhart almost certainly benefited from the extra attention that opposing teams devoted to stopping Eichel, and that Reinhart might see more defensive pressure this season now that the cat is out of the bag.  That may be true – but it’s not like opposing teams are going to totally abandon their efforts to slow Eichel down, who should also improve upon his 2015-16 effort this season.  All in all, I see Samson continuing to validate his status as the second-overall pick of 2014.

Projection: 30-25-55

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Sam Reinhart might live in the shadow of Jack Eichel, but he was one of the Buffalo Sabres’ best all-around forwards in 2015-16.  Look for him to let it be known that he is nobody’s sidekick in 2016-17.