Should the Buffalo Sabres consider moving down in the draft in order to pick up this massive kid and another first-rounder?
The Buffalo Sabres currently hold the 8th pick in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft, and chances are very good that this is exactly where the team will draft.
Sure, I played around with the idea of including the 8th pick in a trade that would bring someone like Taylor Hall to the 716, and I debated whether Matthew Tkachuk was worth moving up for, but given where the Sabres sit in the draft, there is no real reason to believe that either of these options will pan out.
And what I am about to discuss might not happen, either, but personally, I believe it is more likely than seeing the Sabres move up in the draft, so let’s get to the topic of whether or not the Buffalo Sabres should actually move DOWN in the draft.
Put aside your hatred of the Boston Bruins for a moment and consider this: Boston holds two picks in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft. If Tim Murray could somehow convince Bruins GM Don Sweeney that moving up to the 8th overall pick was worth both the 14th and 28th pick, Buffalo would pick twice in the first round. (Of course, there are many more trade-down scenarios, but since I can’t cover them all, we will start with this one.)
If you’re wondering whether the 8th pick in the draft is worth the 14th and 28th, the answer is. . . almost. There was a great piece done over at Broad St. Hockey a few years ago that broke down the value of each pick in the NHL draft, in order to explain what it would take to move up in the draft.
Essentially, what this graph is showing you is how to do your math in order to assemble a trade package that would allow you to move up in the draft. If a team wants to do trade up to the number one pick (trade value of 100), you need to be willing to give up a combination of picks and/or players that add up to at least that value. Check out the full article – even if it is a bit dated, it is still well-researched and at the very least it gives you a formula to start with when discussing draft-day trades.
Picking 14th would give the Sabres a strong shot at drafting Jake Bean, discussed here . . . but another kid worth using the 14the pick on would be Logan Brown, who just finished his second season in the OHL with the Windsor Spitfire’s.
Even though he is listed as a center, the 6’6″ Brown could fill Buffalo’s hole on the left wing – I mean literally fill it. Kid’s monstrous and could still grow an inch or two. Damn.
People love to toss around the saying, “You can’t teach size,” and it’s true, but what’s neat about Brown is that he is surprisingly skilled for a player his size. Future Considerations had this to say about Brown:
"A tall, lanky power forward that possesses a dangerous shot that he can get on net from anywhere on the ice. He is not afraid to use his frame to muscle his way to the net or work the boards. Possesses impressive vision and playmaking ability from the outside and has the unique blend of imposing Big Rig size with solid speed although improvement to his first two steps is required. Needs to continue to add strength to his frame and bring more consistency to his overall game. Has high-end top line NHL upside."
There were some early reports that Brown was not playing as physical a game as you would expect from someone his size, which concerned me initially. Late-season reports such as this one from The Draft Analyst, however, seem to indicate that Brown may finally beginning to realize that he can play a power, rather than finesse, game:
"He was a bit pass-happy the first few months of the season, but his coachability and dedication towards refining his all-around game resulted in a goal-scoring explosion since Januaryou."
As is the case with any young player, Brown will have to bulk up in order to hold his own in the NHL. Combine his playmaking ability with his strength in front of and around the net, though, and you have the potential for one of the league’s best power forwards.
And we have not even discussed that the Sabres would still have the 28th pick to use (or whatever prospect the Sabres received.)
Next: Sabres Can Learn A Thing Or Two From The Sharks' Playoff Run
As always, I remind you that moving down in the draft is just one option the Buffalo Sabres have this year, and this is all just pure speculation on my part. It’s certainly not a bad move – Buffalo can’t go wrong with Brown or Bean – but it requires two to tango and also involves a little bit of luck. Keep it in the back of your mind during draft day, and enjoy Logan Brown’s 2015-16 highlights!