Buffalo Sabres Face Tough Salary Cap Issues

The Buffalo Sabres still have a summer of interesting financial decisions ahead of them.

When I look at the current Sabres roster, I find myself doing something that I really haven’t had to do over the past several seasons:

Pay attention to the salary cap.

It’s actually tricky. I’m so used to saying that the Sabres should sign Player A or B because they can, that I often forget to think about salary cap ramifications when pondering possible roster additions.

I love that I have to think more, though. It means that the rebuild of the organization is one step closer to relevancy, but it also means that some difficult decisions loom over the next several weeks/months/years.

According to General Fanager, Buffalo has just over $9 million in available cap space for the 2016-2017 season. This year’s team is already $2 million more expensive than last year’s team, and it’s not even the middle of July.

Also factoring into this bind are the restricted free agents that have yet to be signed. The player I keep waiting for news about is emerging top-pairing defender Rasmus Ristolainen.

In just his second full NHL season, Ristolainen posted nine goals and 41 points over 82 games. His statistics, projected growth potential and physical tools all point to him being Buffalo’s franchise defenseman for a long while.

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But what is he worth as a 21-year-old restricted free agent? The answer to that question may be the cog that dictates what the Sabres are able to do throughout the rest of this offseason.

We have seen a lot of defensemen in the same position as Ristolainen sign deals over the past couple of months.

Seth Jones, the Blue Jackets defenseman who was taken four picks higher than Ristolainen in the 2013 NHL Draft, inked a six-year, $32.4 million extension with Columbus at the end of June. His contract has an AAV of $5.4 million.

Ristolainen did post slightly better numbers than Jones last season, but Jones also produced more in the second half of the season when he was given more ice time in Columbus. Between time with the Blue Jackets and Nashville Predators, Jones potted three goals and 31 points in 81 games.

On July 1, the Florida Panthers extended former first overall pick and Calder Trophy winner Aaron Ekblad to the tune of an eight-year, $60 million contract. The deal will kick in following the conclusion of this upcoming season, and it will carry an AAV of $7.5 million.

If I had to guess, my bet would be that Ristolainen signs a deal that is somewhere very close to the Jones deal. The absolute highest I see the deal going would be in between the Jones and Ekblad contracts, so around $6.5 million AAV, but I would certainly prefer the contract to stay below or at the $6 million mark.

Assuming Ristolainen makes around $6 million, that figure already takes up two-thirds of Buffalo’s remaining salary cap, and it leaves the team about $3 million to negotiate with other restricted free agents Marcus Foligno and Zemgus Girgensons.

Also, there have been reports all along that rookie free agent Jimmy Vesey has Buffalo on his “short-list” of teams that he would consider signing with. Of course, as a player who is required to sign an ELC, Vesey can’t sign for more than the slotted value, which is under $1 million. However, these contracts can continue to add up, especially if Vesey decides to sign.

The result? Something has to give.

Could we see a move by Tim Murray to alleviate cap stress? At this point, I would say it’s almost a guarantee.

There have been quite a few names thrown around as potential trade-bait.

Perhaps the player with the most value is Girgensons, whose role on the team isn’t particularly defined at the moment. Just last season, many claimed that he possessed top-six potential as he racked up 30 points in 61 games during the horrid 2014-2015 season. However, his production dipped significantly this past season, as he only mustered up 18 points in 70 games.

He could be a player of intrigue to other clubs due to his age (22), and that he has shown the ability to produce at the NHL level.

Tyler Ennis is a name that many fans have kind of soured on after a disappointing season. The team’s leading scorer from a season ago only produced 11 points in 23 games this season, as he spent most of his time on the injured reserve list.

He certainly possesses a ton of talent and has proven his vision and scoring touch in years past, but he is an injury concern at this point in his career with a history of concussion problems.

Would a team be willing to give up an asset on the chance that Ennis returns to his former 46-point self? My guess is that it wouldn’t be the return to make it worth Tim Murray’s while. In fact, Tyler Ennis is a bounce-back candidate who may simply need a healthy season to gel with the now immensely talented forward group that the Sabres have assembled.

Another player that could be on the move is Cody Franson, who possesses a $3.25 million cap hit this season. The defenseman tallied 17 points in 59 games this season, but with the emergence of young players such as Jake McCabe and Casey Nelson, as well as Brendan Guhle who could potentially challenge for a roster spot this season, Franson’s role, much like Girgensons’ role, isn’t clearly seen.

Another team may take a flyer on the 28 year old if they feel he can be a good fit in their bottom pairing, but the cap hit he carries may be too hefty a price.

As Tim Murray has shown in the past, you never can really know what sort of ideas he has cooking up on the stove, but at this point, I think we have to be certain that there is more movement to come.

Buffalo’s roster is finally on the cusp of relevancy, and the chances are strong that the team will look different on Oct. 13. It’s a great sign that the roster has become talented enough to warrant being near the cap ceiling, but with that said, the moves made from here on in will dictate the longterm success of this belabored rebuilding process.

Next: Sabres Hit Jackpot With Nylander

Anyone can improve a franchise that has been trying to reach the cap floor. The real test of Tim Murray’s ability will come when the team doesn’t have much margin for error, and that era of Sabres hockey is right now.

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