Buffalo Sabres Player Projections: Jack Eichel

Can the phenom lead the Buffalo Sabres into the playoffs in just his second year as a pro?

Yesterday, our Buffalo Sabres Player Projection series focused on Sam Reinhart, probably the biggest surprise of the 2015-16, as far as the Sabres were concerned.  Now, we focus our sights on one Jack Eichel, who developed some nice chemistry with Reino as the season went on. Can the two of these guys make the Sabres’ second line one of the most dangerous second units in the NHL?

Player: Jack Eichel

2015-16 stats: 24-32-56, -16 in 81 games played

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Unlike Reinhart, who surprised most fans by topping 40 points in a season in which he was expected to spend a lot of time in the AHL, Eichel did not have the luxury of flying under anyone’s radar.  Despite the fact that both he and Reino were drafted with the second-overall pick in their respective NHL drafts, Eichel entered his rookie season with a ton of hype, and while his season was not otherworldly, it was still pretty damn good, especially when you consider he was playing for the Buffalo Sabres.  Eichel finished the 2015-16 second on the team in scoring, and was also second amongst all rookies.   He was a highlight reel waiting to happen, and is a huge reason why the Sabres will be featured 8 times on national television during the 2016-17 season.

It’s also worth noting that Eichel was tied for the team lead (with Johan Larsson, no less!) with five game-winning goals.  You can’t teach that kind of clutch.

The HERO Chart

Well would you look at that?  According to his HERO chart, Eichel’s linemates were actually better with him off the ice than they were when he was on it.

Clearly, the Buffalo Sabres are not a better team without Jack Eichel than they are with him – this is where all of you HERO chart haters will begin explaining how useless advanced stats are! – but you cannot argue with the facts: Eichel still has some holes in his game.  Yes, Eichel had a target on his back each and every night last season, so it makes sense that when he is off the ice, the number of goals you would expect his linemates to score would increase slightly, due to less defensive attention.  And we have to remember that Eichel spent a lot of time playing with Brian Gionta and Matt Moulson during the early stages of the 2015-16 season.  Still, Eichel’s on the wrong side of some telling statistics that derive from the defensive end of the ice.

The good news is if you follow Eichel on Instagram, you may have seen a photo of him and some of his buddies fishing.   Haven’t seen the photo to which I am referring?  Then head over to Hockey Buzz to read Garth’s hilarious description of Eichel’s more-muscular frame.   As you might expect, the post is a bit over-the-top, but one thing Garth gets right is this:  it certainly does appear as if Mr. Eichel has been working out in order to game some mass and strength in preparation for the 2016-17.

Boy, will he need it, because Eichel still has a lot of work to do.  He’s fast, and has a great set of hands, but he is still not strong enough to win many battles, and his faceoff percentage of 41% leaves a lot to be desired.  He also looked tired at times last season, so you know he is spending the off-season conditioning, as well as bulking up.  These are not complaints, of course – he was 18 years-old when last season started, for goodness sakes! – but the reality is, if he wants to become an elite player, he still has his work cut out for him..

Projection: 32-41-73

Next: 5 Must-See Sabres Home Games

It’s hard not to seem like a Polyanna when it comes to Jack Eichel, but here I am, projecting his points to increase by17 points.  Seems like a big jump, but you have to think that a healthy Tyler Ennis (or even Ennis at 75% of what he was two seasons ago) is going to make life easier for Eichel, along with whatever improvements Sam Reinhart shows in his game.  Better still the acquisition of Kyle Okposo doesn’t entirely take the target off of Eichel’s back, but it will cause opposing defenses to pick their poison – and if Okposo winds up spending significant time alongside Eichel, my projection is probably too low.

Either way, expect a monstrous sophomore effort from Mr. Eichel.