Buffalo Sabres Player Projections: Kyle Okposo
In our latest attempt to predict how well the guys on the Buffalo Sabres roster will perform in 20-16-17, we take a look at the new guy, who is under absolutely no pressure at all. Right!
Forget the 2016 NHL Entry Draft: the Buffalo Sabres officially became a better team this offseason on July, when the front office inked former New York Islanders right winger Kyle Okposo to a 7-year, $42 million contract.
In no way does this mean the Sabres did not draft well – Alexander Nylander has the potential to be a dynamic top-6 forward, and Rasmus Asplund, Cliff Pu and even Vasili Glotov might wind up with decent NHL careers.
But come on – not one of the players drafted by the Buffalo Sabres instantly made the club playoff-ready.
Okposo, on the other hand . . . .
Player: Kyle Okposo
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2015-16 stats: 22-42-64, -4 in 79 games played
Let’s do some simple math today – I know, you were not told there would be math!
The Detroit Red Wings scored 211 goals in 2015-16, and allowed 224.
The Buffalo Sabres, meanwhile, scored 201 goals, and allowed 221. Ten goals – that is the difference (on paper) between the Sabres beating the Red Wings for the 8th playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, and hitting the golf links early.
Sure, I’m simplifying things – but consider: if the Sabres had scored just 10 more goals last season, how many of those losses, regulation or overtime, would have been wins? Just a few more points would have pushed the Sabres Montreal, New Jersey and possibly even Ottawa and Carolina in the standings – and that’s just if the Sabres had scored ten more goals.
Barring injury or a complete train-wreck of a season, Kyle Okposo instantly makes the Buffalo Sabres 20, not just 10, goals better than they were last season. As flawed as this team still is, the addition of the versatile right-winger should have the Sabres battling for at least the 8th playoff spot in the East next season, and if the rest of the team shows improvement, the Sabres might even be able to climb into the 7th playoff spot. That’s how big the signing of this free-agent was this summer.
The HERO Chart
Once again, the HERO chart created at Own the Puck is just a colorful way of showing you what advanced statistics say about a player. In this case, the chart shows you what you already knew: Okposo is a solid, two-way player who will make whatever line he plays for that much more dangerous.
People always used to compare Okposo to Matt Moulson, making the claim that each of these players were simply the by-product of the genius of John Tavares. And yes, if you look at Okposo’s numbers throughout his career, you will notice that he scored less when he was playing without Tavares than he scored when he was with the All-Star center.
News flash: John Tavares is really freaking good!
Another news flash: neither Ryan O’Reilly nor Jack Eichel are exactly scrubs, are they?
It’s pretty safe to say that almost any winger in the NHL would benefit from playing alongside Tavares, and would score less when he was off the ice. Even without Tavares, though, Okposo is ranked 52nd among all forwards who have played more than 1,000 minutes at 5v5 strength over the last three seasons with 1.98 pts/hour, according to Cult of Hockey. (He would be ranked 21st if you consider his time played with Tavares.)
So no, Sabres fans do not need to worry about whether GM Tim Murray spent $42 million on Matt Moulson 2.0. Okposo is still going to score, and create scoring chances for his linemates. Having said that, I would anticipate Okposo’s numbers to drop ever-so-slightly in 2016-17, as he will be getting used to a new system, new linemates, and life without John Tavares.
Projection: 21-40-61
Next: Sabres Projections: How Do The Top-4 Defensemen Rate?
The Buffalo Sabres are a far-more dangerous team now that they have Kyle Okposo on the right wing, and should spend the 2016-17 NHL regular season within striking distance of a playoff spot. Okposo should have some growing pains ahead of him, so I would caution against expecting him to enjoy a career-best effort next season. Even so, a precipitous drop-off doesn’t seem likely for someone of Okposo’s caliber – and just think what he will be able to do in his second season with the Sabres, once he is comfortable with the team.
Happy thoughts!