The Buffalo Sabres roster may be improved, but injuries have exposed how thin the team is on talented forwards.
When the Buffalo Sabres opened training camp this September – before the team was hit with injuries to Jack Eichel and Evander Kane – there was a general feeling of optimism surrounding this team.
That’s to be expected – this team did show a 27 point improvement from 2014-15 to 2015-16, and managed to pick up the second-most coveted free agent in this summer’s pool in Kyle Okposo. Mix all of that goodness with the solid rookie efforts of Eichel (56 pts.) and Sam Reinhart (42), and it’s not surprising that so many fans (and some so-called “experts”) thought that the Sabres might compete for a playoff spot in 2016-17.
But if you look back at some of the argument that pundits and Sabres fans used in order to justify their dreams of watching Sabres postseason games, you will see that “forward depth” was often tossed around as reasons why this team could overcome the works-in-progress known as the Sabres’ defense and goaltending.
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Clearly, no one could envision this team losing both Eichel and Kane by the end of the team’s first game, but even before those two went down, was forward depth really a strongpoint of the Buffalo Sabres?
If you do a little research, the answer was clearly, “no,” a fact which the Eichel and Kane injuries is making painfully – some might say embarrassingly – clear.
Just a quick tour of the NHL forward points statistics from 2015-16 will show you how many top-25/ top-50/top-100 forwards the 2016 NHL playoffs teams skated last season:
Anaheim: 0/2/3
Chicago: 2/3/4
Dallas Stars: 3/3/4
Detroit Red Wings: 0/0/2
Florida Panthers: 1/4/6
Los Angeles: 1/3/4
Minnesota Wild: 0/0/2
Nashville: 1/3/4
New York Islanders: 2/2/3
New York Rangers: 0/2/3
Philadelphia Flyers: 1/3/4
Pittsburgh: 1/3/4
San Jose: 2/2/3
St. Louis Blues: 1/1/3
Tampa Bay Lightning: 2/2/2
Washington: 3/3/4
By comparison, the Sabres’ top-6 heading into the 2016-17 season, in terms of top-25/top-50/top-100, looked like this: 1/2/3, with Okposo being the team’s lone top-25 scorer from last season, Ryan O’Reilly ranking in at 37 and Eichel rounding things out at 53.
Granted, this is not terrible – there are plenty of defensive-minded teams who can get away with a lack of top-100 scorers. A team with questions at the blueline and in goal like the Buffalo Sabres, however, would have had to be a team that scored early and often if it wanted to have a shot at making the playoffs. With teams like Florida, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Washington loaded with offensive talent, you have to wonder how long Buffalo could have hung with the big boys even if it was healthy.
Looking deeper at the forward scoring statistics from last season, you’ll see why I’m doubtful that even a healthy Sabres team had the firepower needed to earn a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Beyond Okposo, ROR, and Eichel, Buffalo only one has forward who fell between the 100-150 forwards: Reinhart. Meanwhile, Florida (2), Pittsburgh (1), Philadelphia (1) Tampa Bay (2), Washington (3) and even Detroit (3) skated a top-9 comprised mostly of forwards who ranked among the 150 best in the league. Not so in Buffalo, which makes the loss of Eichel especially damning.
The bottom line? The Buffalo Sabres did not own a playoff-capable top-9 even before the season started, which means it would have struggled to compete with the best teams in the East even with a healthy Jack Eichel. Losing Eichel means this team is trying to stay afloat with just two top-100 forwards – good luck with that. Strengthening the top-6 should have been a priority even after GM Tim Murray signed Okposo; now, it’s an absolute necessity. It’s easy to say hindsight is 20/20, but GMTM gets paid a lot of money to build a roster, so the question is, how did he honestly believe his top-6 was good enough to compete heading into this season?