The Buffalo Sabres have a steep hill to climb to make it back to the playoffs, somewhere they haven’t been since 2011.
95 points. The average number of points to make the playoffs in the last 5 years, when the NHL changed the division and playoff format, has been 95 points. The Buffalo Sabres have missed the playoffs the last 7 seasons and have only surpassed 80 points twice during that timeframe. With the exception of the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, the Sabres have won the least amount of games in the league over the past five seasons.
Now that we have digested the Sabres recent futility, how do they break the barrier to play meaningful hockey in the Spring?
If I posted this article yesterday, the tone would have been quite different. Then Sabres General Manager Jason Botterill woke up the hockey world on a quiet August Thursday night by acquiring Jeff Skinner.
First, they need to find 30 points. Stranger things have happened in recent memory. Last year, the Colorado Avalanche had a 47 positive point swing and the Calgary Flames had a 35 point swing in 2013-14. Where are these points going to come from though?
The easiest place to look is in the Atlantic Division. Once you move past the stalwarts of the division: Tampa Bay, Boston, and Toronto (for what it’s worth, they have gone longer without winning a playoff series than the Sabres), the competition for fourth place is not that strong. The biggest threats for wins in the division is Florida. Other than adding some depth in goal with the signing of Michael Hutchinson, the Panthers were very quiet this off-season. The rest of the division: Detroit, Montreal, and Ottawa, are all far from being playoff threats.
Now to the ice. With Jeff Skinner (presumably) sliding into the top line with Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart, the offense is ready to take the next step. The Sabres are coming off a year in which they finished last in scoring as the only team to not score 200 goals. Skinner will be joining new Sabres Conor Sheary, Vladimir Sobotka, Patrik Berglund, Tage Thompson as well as the ascension of Casey Mittelstadt. The loss of Ryan O’Reilly definitely stings but replacing O’Reilly, Jordan Nolan, and Benoit Pouliot with these additions is a substantial improvement up front.
Next is on defense and in net. The Sabres were in the bottom 3 of almost every goaltender category last season. There is no reason to doubt that goaltending, Carter Hutton is a strong upgrade from Robin Lehner, will not be better in 2018-19. Same goes for the defense. The addition of Rasmus Dahlin gives the Sabres a solid top 4 defenseman with a battle for the last 2 spots between Nathan Beaulieu, Jake McCabe, Brandon Guhle, and new Sabre Matthew Hunwick.
Finally, the Sabres need to play better at home. With the exception of the 2016-17 campaign, the Sabres consistently have a losing record at the KeyBank Center, winning an abysmal 11 times on home ice last season.
Regardless if the team make the playoffs this season, the future is brighter than it has been in awhile. Not only do the Sabres have 3 first-round draft picks next year (a draft class that is projected to be very strong) , but the organization is stacked with prospects . The pieces may finally be falling into place for Phil Housley and company.
Can the Sabres make the big jump? Let us know what you think in the comment below!