Could Jeff Skinner be a key to Sabres resurgence?

What does Jeff Skinner have left? Well, there are two ways to take that query.

The cynical Buffalo Sabres fan assumes you are asking what amount of time is left on Skinner’s albatross of a contract and will quickly offer a snarky response. “Six more years at $9 million per year.” There are likely lots of fans in this camp.

The more optimistic fan might think you are asking about the amount of production Skinner might have left. That fan’s response will be more positive and hopeful. “He has 11 years in the league, but he doesn’t turn 30 until next May so he should have plenty left to give.” That is certainly a valid response, especially since the regular season hasn’t started yet.

All Sabres fans, cynics, and optimists alike are frustrated about Skinner’s decrease in offensive production. Since signing his eight-year, $72 million contract after the 2018-2019 season, Skinner has just 21 goals in 112 games played. That is one goal every 5.2 games, or if you prefer, one goal every couple of weeks or so.

How much of a drop-off is that from before the contract signing?

Before he was traded to Buffalo, Skinner scored 204 goals in 579 games with the Carolina Hurricanes. That’s one goal every 2.8 games, or about once a week. In his first season with the Sabres, he put up 40 goals for the first and only time in his career. That’s a goal every 2.05 games.
It doesn’t take a math major to see that the drop-off is significant and painful. Fans on the cynical side have all of the ammunition they need to argue that Skinner is washed up, done, and creating dead weight on the roster with his morbidly obese contract.

Is there anything the optimist can hang his or her hat on to argue that Skinner could bounce back and fuel a Sabres renaissance?

Maybe.

Maybe Skinner will succeed now that he won’t be playing for Ralph Kruger anymore. Skinner wasn’t allowed to play with the cool kids on the top line very often while Kruger was in Buffalo, and some say that could have been a factor in his regression. Maybe Don Granato will find the right combination of hungry young linemates for Skinner, and he can find that finishing touch he had when he first got here.

Maybe Skinner’s loyalty will lead to some success. Even after he was benched for 3 games by Kruger last season, Skinner made it clear he is happy being a Buffalo Sabre and doesn’t want to be traded. He was also one of the few guys on locker cleanout day that didn’t suggest the grass was greener in Boston or Florida or Philadelphia or Chicago. GM Kevyn Adams has said he only wants guys that are happy and proud to be Sabres. If Skinner wants to be part of the solution, that can only be a good thing.

Maybe Skinner will be motivated to shut down the narrative that the only reason he reached the 40-goal plateau in his first season as a Sabre is because he was playing with Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart.

I know. That’s a lot of “maybes”. And the past two seasons’ worth of missed scoring chances, lost puck battles and wasted shifts don’t provide a lot of evidence to confidently predict that a bounce-back year from Skinner can be the key to a resurgence. But Skinner still has great hands and world-class skills.

It could happen.

The cynical fans will say I’m dreaming, but the time for optimism is now before they start the regular season.