Buffalo Sabres: Eric Comrie’s small sample size may predict success
Eric Comrie might be the favorite to start in the net for the Buffalo Sabres. And history shows his small sample size indicates a successful future.
Here is an opening night scenario: Eric Comrie starts at goaltender, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is the backup, and Craig Anderson is a healthy scratch. As you know, both Comrie and Luukkonen played in a combined 32 games last season, with the latter hopping in and playing well for the Buffalo Sabres until an injury forced him to miss time.
But today, let’s focus on Comrie, and why history shows that his small sample size in the NHL indicates success in the net for Buffalo. You can also use the same argument for Luukkonen, despite his struggles in Rochester. But I’m focusing on Comrie here simply because I feel he holds the edge over Luukkonen.
History shows goaltenders with small NHL sample sizes succeed with the Buffalo Sabres
Some in the Buffalo Sabres faithful were confused as to why their team would go after Comrie when there were several more experienced goalies out there. Guys like Jack Campbell and Darcy Kuemper were available. The Sabres also could have traded for Ville Husso, which is what their division rival, the Detroit Red Wings, did five days before free agency opened.
Yet, the Sabres went with a goaltender who played in just 28 games, starting 24 of them. Comrie’s career stats are also not eye-popping, sitting at 13-10-1, with a 0.905 save percentage and a 3.06 GAA. Not horrific stats, but nothing compared to Kuemper’s 0.918 career save percentage and 2.48 GAA. Or Campbell, whose career statistics are identical to Kuemper’s at 0.916 in the save percentage column with a 2.53 GAA.
But when you look at some of the best goaltenders in team history, Comrie’s small, average sample size is in pretty good company. Let’s look at two goaltenders the Sabres took a chance on whose experience level was close to what Comrie’s is in 2022.
Dominik Hasek: Sample Size – 25 NHL games, 53 IHL games
Let’s start with the best goaltender in franchise history and arguably one of the best in NHL history. Dominik Hasek came to the Buffalo Sabres on just a 78-game sample size, after having logged a 13-4-2 record, an 0.897 save percentage, and a 2.58 GAA in the NHL.
We all know the story. The Sabres gave up a fourth round pick and Stephane Beauregard to the Chicago Blackhawks for Hasek. Beauregard was subsequently traded again three days later while Hasek wound up playing in 28 games during the 1992-93 season, his first in Buffalo. His numbers were not spectacular, as he logged just an 0.896 save percentage, an 11-10-4 record, and a 3.15 GAA.
Then came the six First Team All-Star awards, six Vezinas, two Harts, two Pearsons, and a Jennings. Take away the fringe 1992-93 season, and Hazek’s career 0.926 save percentage, 2.22 GAA, and 234-170-70 record is even sweeter.
Note, this is NOT saying that I believe Comrie’s career will end up like Hasek’s. Dominik Hasek is a once-in-a-generation kind of goaltender, and Comrie probably won’t end up winning six Vezinas with the Sabres. But it is saying that he could very well wind up enjoying a solid career in Buffalo and he may even fend off Devon Levi and/or Erik Portillo if they sign.
Martin Biron: Sample size – 103 AHL games, nine NHL games
I often call Marty Biron the “forgotten goaltender” since he’s sandwiched between Hasek and Ryan Miller, arguably the two best goaltenders in Buffalo Sabres history. And while 103 AHL games isn’t an incredibly small sample size, compare that to Ryan Miller’s 170 games or even Comrie’s 207.
Biron ended up starting half the time for the Sabres in 1999-00, when he saw action in 41 games. He posted a 2.42 GAA, a 0.909 save percentage, and a 19-18-2 record. This came after Biron played in just nine games prior, three of which came during the 1995-96 season, with another six coming in 1998-99. In the latter, Biron logged a 2.14 GAA and a 0.917 save percentage.
But his 1-2-1 record in those six games played convinced the Sabres he could be their guy moving forward despite just making 112 combined NHL/AHL appearances.
Biron’s career numbers with the Sabres look like this: Career save percentage of .909, a 2.53 GAA, and a record of 134-115-29. Biron will never be remembered as a Buffalo Sabres great, but he was, at worst, a serviceable player who didn’t need a huge sample size to convince the Sabres he could at least play in up to 72 games in a single season.
What to expect from Comrie?
Comrie, as you can see from the previous slide, has over twice as much experience as Biron had at both the NHL and AHL levels, playing in a combined 235 games as opposed to Biron’s 112. So there is a much larger sample size than what many in the Buffalo Sabres faithful believe.
I expect Comrie’s floor will match that of Biron’s, which will at least give the Sabres more stability in the net than they had last season. However, we need to remember that Comrie also did not play in the system. And that could wind up putting him behind Luukkonen this season if he struggles and the latter shows promise either in Rochester, or during spot starts.
Further, there is also the possibility of Devon Levi and Erik Portillo signing. So even if Comrie posts a good season in 2022-23, there are potentially two if not three goaltenders, supposing Luukkonen shows more this season, knocking on Comrie’s door.
Overall, Comrie would need to perform better than Biron to keep his job as a starter. Early in Miller’s tenure, Biron was in a timeshare with the legendary goaltender, and the same could occur with Comrie. But, let’s focus on the season at hand. How will Comrie fare?
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With a talented Sabres team in front of him that is young but has shown chemistry, my expectation is that Comrie will post at least a 0.910 save percentage, a 2.85 GAA, and a 24-22-4 record. He will play well enough to open the 2023-24 season as the starter, but he may end up in a timeshare with Luukkonen as early as this season if the latter proves he was better and more durable than he played in 2021-22.
Article Source: How Does Eric Comrie Compare to Other Sabres’ Goalies? by Jeff Dahlberg
(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference)