Buffalo Sabres: How will each rookie produce in 2022-23?
The Buffalo Sabres will most likely see three rookie skaters grace the roster in 2022-23. Where will they play and how will they produce this season?
The Buffalo Sabres may have a few rookies on the primary roster by the end of the 2022-23 NHL Season. But we know of at least three who will be there from Day One barring any type of catastrophic meltdown or injury. In case you never heard of them, they are defenseman Owen Power, and wingers Jack Quinn, and J.J. Peterka.
There are a lot of high hopes for all three incoming rookies, and yes, it is very possible to see this golden trio finish one-two-three for the Calder Trophy. But for the purposes of this article, let’s be realistic with each and come up with the most likely outcome for Power, Peterka, and Quinn, starting with the 2021 first overall pick.
Breaking down how each rookie will produce for the Buffalo Sabres in 2022-23: Rookie #1 – Owen Power
Of the trio, Power is most likely to win the Calder Trophy. He stepped in late last season and played well enough to at least man the second pairing this year with either Henri Jokiharju, Ilya Lyubushkin, or both.
This season, I can see Power becoming the second-best defenseman that the Buffalo Sabres have if he continues to develop his game. Once again, he will display a two-way prowess, but I can see him struggling early in the season because opponents now know a thing or two about him.
But, Power will overcome early season struggles and end up playing well enough to warrant serious consideration for the Calder. I am looking for him to score a solid 10 goals and 25 assists, good for 35 points, although I can easily see Power going above 40.
I also believe Power’s best game will come on defense, where he will log an outstanding number of takeaways. He had six last season, so through a stretch of 75 to 82 games, I am expecting 65 takeaways and 90-plus blocks. He will also average over 20 minutes of ice time.
Rookie #2 – J.J. Peterka
If you go back to 2021-22, J.J. Peterka was the most consistent prospect in the Buffalo Sabres system. He won All-Rookie honors alongside Jack Quinn, and he even outplayed his teammate in the Calder Cup Playoffs.
In 70 regular season games, Peterka’s 68 points led all AHL rookies. Of those 68, 28 went for goals and another 40, assists. He also added 12 points (7 + 5) in his 10 playoff games. So how good will Peterka look at the next level?
I can see him at winger either on the third or the fourth line. His playing style bodes well for the third, but he can also use his hitter’s mentality for the fourth. I’m looking for head coach Don Granato to develop the rookies in Quinn and Peterka slowly, so I’ll go out on a limb and project he sees time on both the third and the fourth in 2022-23.
Therefore, I don’t see him producing too many points on the bottom six; most likely around 30, with more of those points coming in the latter half of the season. In my projection, I had Peterka scoring between 25 and 35, so let’s take the average number and also say 10 of those points will be goals and the other 20, assists.
It may not put Peterka in consideration for the Calder, but it will be something for him to build on. He will be an exciting player to watch regardless.
Rookie #3 – Jack Quinn
Quinn struggled in the Calder Cup Playoffs, but so far, those struggles have been outliers. Like Power, he also had an outstanding NHL debut, even if it lasted just two games, scoring both a goal and an assist.
When he returned to Rochester, Quinn ended the regular season with a ridiculous 61 points in 45 contests, and it makes you wonder how dangerous he could have been if he stayed healthy. For example, Peterka scored 68 in 70 games, so let’s stretch Quinn’s production over that same span. You get 95 points, 40 goals, and 55 assists, which would have paced all AHL rookies by nearly 30 points.
I did rank Quinn 13th in all forwards on the Buffalo Sabres going into the season. But that ranking is nothing more than a starting point. I do believe Quinn’s overall production depends on how well others produce in the lineup, such as Peyton Krebs and Victor Olofsson. If Krebs takes the next step and Olofsson stays hot, look for Quinn to remain on the lower lines this season unless he outplays the duo.
But, if Krebs and Olofsson take a step back, Quinn may end up on the second line. Realistically, I am going to say both Krebs and Olofsson continue to improve, but Casey Mittelstadt (currently my projected second-line center) may struggle again with injuries. If this is the case, Quinn may be the next man up at winger on the second line, which will bump Krebs inside to center.
Related Story. Sabres among the top goaltenders under 25. light
So, can Quinn contend for the Calder? There is an outside chance that he snags it. But as far as rookies go, I am expecting Owen Power to lead the charge. Quinn, however, will eclipse the 40-point threshold. I’ll get bold and predict he scores 20 goals and tacks on 30 assists for a total of 50, but only if he ends up seeing time on the second line.
(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference and Hockey DB)