Buffalo Sabres 75 Bold Predictions for 2023-24: Prediction #7

Mattias Samuelsson may play a “boring” game, but the Buffalo Sabres were one of the NHLs best teams when he was healthy last season.

I’ve often placed Mattias Samuelsson Number 1 over Rasmus Dahlin when ranking Buffalo Sabres blueliners. And while those who only look at statistics don’t agree, those of us who look beyond them, especially at winning percentage when Samuelsson is healthy, see exactly why I have him ranked over Dahlin.

Nobody on the team last season was more valuable to the Sabres winning games than Samuelsson, and that trend should continue this season. However, one reason Samuelsson gets zero respect from many is that he doesn’t score – in 109 career games, Samuelsson has yet to score a goal at KeyBank Center, having found twine twice on the road last year.

And in those 109 games, Samuelsson has just 22 points, two goals, and 20 assists. But he’s also a towering, stay-at-home defenseman who would have logged 136 blocks and 160 hits if he were healthy for an entire 82-game stretch, with all other variables being equal. Further, the Sabres also allowed 300 goals last year, but their on-ice save percentage with Samuelsson sat at 91.4% at even strength and 5-on-5.

Buffalo Sabres, win, win, and win some more in 2023-24 with Samuelsson

When it comes to getting bold for Mattias Samuelsson, you can’t assume points, so instead, I’m looking at points percentage that the Sabres will accumulate with him on the ice. And in games that he plays in, Buffalo’s points percentage will sit at 65%, meaning they will accumulate between 106 and 107 points if he’s healthy for all 82 games.

Sounds farfetched for a team that had just 75 in 2021-22, and 91 in 2022-23, but remember, Samuelsson missed 27 games thanks to injury last season, and Buffalo only won one-third of those contests. Even if Samuelsson plays in 70 games, Buffalo will accumulate 91 points (140 X 0.65), and eight (at one-third) in the 12 games without him, giving the Sabres 99 points.

Therefore, for the Blue and Gold to return to the postseason for the first time in 13 years, Samuelsson needs to stay healthy. They will thrive if he does, but like last year, they will stagnate if he doesn’t.

(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference)