Grading the Buffalo Sabres forwards for 2023-24
Even without Jack Quinn, the Buffalo Sabres could boast one of the finest forward units in the NHL. Just how good can they be in 2023-24?
The trio of Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson, and Alex Tuch has evolved into one of the NHL’s best, and they are showing no signs of slowing down. What’s more? When someone like the 31-year-old Skinner’s time eventually comes to an end, the Buffalo Sabres have so much talent in the prospects pool that nothing but a seamless transition seems to be in order.
To say the least, it’s beyond impressive, but focusing on the 2023-24 season, Skinner, Tage, and Tuch could wind up enjoying their best year yet. Even if they may not need to score as much for Buffalo, something we will touch on in a minute, their growing chemistry makes them a threat to find twine every time they take the ice. Here are just a few advanced statistics that jumped out at me from last season:
- Each scored 4.5 or more goals above expected, with Tage leading the way at 12.8
- Top 30 in goals per 60 minutes at 1.52 or more in the NHL
- Top 25 in points per 60 minutes at 3.34 or more in the NHL
- Tage and Tuch gracing the Top 10 in Goals Above Shooting Talent
Not half-bad numbers at all, and even if the trio doesn’t reach those same numbers this season, the overall reason would be that the talent behind them is better than ever. And that talent will only improve when Jack Quinn returns to the lineup.
Buffalo Sabres forward unit can be a formidable group
Beyond the obvious talent that the Sabres have in their first unit, Dylan Cozens leads the rest of the forwards in many distinct categories. Not only did the Workhorse from Whitehorse break out with 68 points last season, he’s also a brewing leader and one of the team’s most complete players. Cozens can easily become a complete forward for the Blue and Gold this season, excelling in offense and defense.
Youngsters like J.J. Peterka and Jack Quinn once he returns will also enjoy an uptick in play. Like Cozens, Quinn could become a more complete forward while Peterka could be on the verge of a breakout if his dominating performance at the IIHF Worlds serves as an indicator like it did for Cozens.
The Lower Lines
Buffalo will also be more physical this season on the lower lines, with Jordan Greenway adding more edge to a unit that already included a pair of big hitters in Zemgus Girgensons and Peyton Krebs. And speaking of Girgensons, he showed some dynamic leadership capabilities along with Kyle Okposo, and it’s why they will return this season.
Casey Mittelstadt broke out in points with 59, but what you may not remember is how effective he was on the power play last season, with the Buffalo Sabres snagging a 17.1% shooting percentage when he was on the ice during the man advantage.
Of course, Victor Olofsson was once again effective with scoring on the power play and even strength. And you can expect him to, for at least the first half of the season, remain an effective scorer.
Finally, Tyson Jost proved he could be serviceable in a variety of situations. He will most likely play as a fourth liner and extra skater in 2023-24, but when he’s on the ice, expect him to remain an effective player on the PK unit and in the defensive zone.
Grade – A
Overall, there is hardly a weak spot on the Buffalo Sabres at forward, even if Jack Quinn misses half a season. In fact, once Quinn returns and if everyone is still healthy and playing at a high level, then you can turn that ‘A’ into an ‘A+.’
Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson, and Alex Tuch are going to have another phenomenal year, but with Dylan Cozens and Casey Mittelstadt enjoying a breakout campaign, along with J.J. Peterka’s stunning performance at the IIHF Worlds, the projected second line will also look strong.
The third line, in which I have Jordan Greenway and Peyton Krebs playing wing and center, respectively, should be physical. Victor Olofsson will join them unless he’s traded at the last second, and he still provides a strong scoring option, despite his overall lack of physicality.
light. Related Story. Predicting the Buffalo Sabres goaltender workload for 2023-24
Finally, Kyle Okposo, Tyson Jost, and Zemgus Girgensons should comprise the fourth line. Okposo and Girgensons are still good defensively, and they will provide sound leadership while Jost is serviceable, to say the least. The extra skaters will be recalled from Rochester, and that’s something we will dive into with another article.
(Statistics provided by Money Puck and Hockey-Reference)