Projecting the floor and ceiling of the Buffalo Sabres third line

To be more accurate, this is a projection of the Buffalo Sabres projected third line, so the players listed may not reflect the October 12th lineup.

Let’s assume for a second that the three players (four in this article) I have projected to play on the Buffalo Sabres third line stay there most of the season, even if that is not going to happen. But for simplicity purposes, it’s easier to throw Jordan Greenway and Victor Olofsson onto the line at winger, while Peyton Krebs and Casey Mittelstadt split time at center, and focus solely on their respective projections.

We got the physical Greenway on the left wing while Olofsson sits at right wing, placing Krebs at center for a projected 41 games, and Mittelstadt for the latter 41. I also realize many project a potential prospect like Jiri Kulich or Lukas Rousek to play this line instead of Olofsson, so if and when that becomes the case, we will revisit this topic in October.

Now that you know how this particular projection works, let’s set some floors and ceilings for each player’s stats across a projected 75 to 82 games for our wingers. Again, that projection is just for simplicity and doesn’t reflect each individual possibility.

Projecting Buffalo Sabres projected third line’s floor and ceiling

1 – Victor Olofsson

Ceiling: 30 goals, 20 assists, 50 points, 20.5% shooting percentage

Floor: 20 goals, 10 assists, 30 points, 14.5% shooting percentage

Once again, it’s easy to project Olofsson to be the go-to at the circle at even strength, five-on-five, and on the power play. If he stays in Buffalo all season and is a full-time player, don’t expect him to make even the slightest shift in his role.

2 – Jordan Greenway

Ceiling: 10 goals, 14 assists, 24 points, 15.0% shooting percentage

Floor: 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points, 10.0% shooting percentage

Greenway is one of those players who won’t score often, but as a big-bodied defensive forward, he can be the group’s sledgehammer. Splitting time between the Buffalo Sabres and Minnesota Wild last year, Greenway had 107 hits and 155 the year before, so expect physical play here.

3 – Peyton Krebs – 41 games

Ceiling: 7 goals, 15 assists, 22 points, 14.5% shooting percentage

Floor: 4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points, 8.5% shooting percentage

Assuming Casey Mittelstadt gets the call at right wing for the first half of the year, Peyton Krebs could bump up to center on the third line. And with Olofsson sneaking into the circle, it could give Krebs plenty of chances to snag some assists, especially if he can get a fast play going.

4 – Casey Mittelstadt – 41 games

Ceiling: 30 points (65 total), 6 goals (15 total), 24 assists (50 total), 14.1% shooting percentage

Floor: 20 points (45 total), 3 goals (8 total), 17 assists (37 total), 8.1% shooting percentage

And finally, we got Casey Mittelstadt, who could pick up where he left off on the third line (and power play) from last season if he reverts there during the second half of the year. There is a chance, however, that following Quinn’s return, the Cozens line just goes off at some point, which could limit the overall amount of scoring from Mittelstadt, but he will still be an effective player.

Overall, expect moderate productivity from this line. None of the above will score in droves thanks to a remarkable top-six, but the all-out offensive happy Buffalo Sabres will see decent production from this line.

(Statistics from Hockey-Reference assisted in each player’s respective floor and ceiling)