Buffalo Sabres fans seeking any shred of optimism ahead of the 2025-26 NHL season received a healthy dose Wednesday with the release of a popular standings projection.
Jack Fraser, best known for running the JFresh Hockey analytics brand, predicted the Sabres would qualify for the playoffs for the first time in 15 years in his initial forecast for the upcoming campaign. He pegged Buffalo at 94 points, the seventh-highest total in the Eastern Conference.
Although the prediction could still change before Opening Night in early October — injuries and other roster moves may shift the point totals — it's the first significant sign the Sabres aren't as far away from postseason contention as their 79 points last season suggested.
Why the Sabres can make the playoffs
Although it's fair to remain skeptical about Fraser's projection since Buffalo is riding a 14-year playoff drought, which is the longest such streak in NHL history, it's not out of the realm of possibility for the franchise to turn a corner in 2025-26.
The Sabres accomplished their most important task this offseason: Finding a defensive partner for Owen Power, who's been saddled with an endless stream of underperformers since the team selected him with the first overall pick in the 2021 draft.
Michael Kesselring, who was acquired from the Utah Mammoth in the JJ Peterka trade, should finally provide stability next to Power. A top-four defense group of Bowen Byram-Rasmus Dahlin and Power-Kesselring should be a source of strength for Buffalo.
Meanwhile, the Sabres also have a large group of young players capable of taking their games to the next level this season.
Zach Benson headlines a U-23 group that also includes Power, Jack Quinn, Josh Doan and Jiri Kulich. The organization's overreliance on young players has been a factor in the drought, but a breakthrough may finally be on the horizon.
Buffalo also doesn't have many older players in danger of a drop off. Jason Zucker is the only over-30 contributor who may see his numbers dip a bit this season, but he should still be a solid secondary scorer even if he doesn't match last year's 53 points.
Add in a couple legitimate cornerstones in Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin, and the Sabres have the pieces to make some noise this season if everything falls into place.
Factors that endanger Buffalo's postseason pursuit
No Sabres player faces more pressure in 2025-26 than goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen.
UPL looked like a star on the rise in 2023-24, when he compiled a 2.57 goals against average and .910 save percentage across 54 appearances. The strong play earned him a five-year, $23.75 million contract extension from general manager Kevyn Adams.
The netminder's play fell off a cliff last season, though. He posted a 3.20 GAA and .887 SV%, and the eye test backed up those poor numbers. He let in far too many weak goals at key moments and a mentally fragile Buffalo roster often crumbled in the aftermath.
If Luukkonen plays at that level again, the Sabres are probably toast given the uncertainty surrounding whether backup Alex Lyon or prospect Devon Levi can carry a starter's workload in the NHL.
That said, if UPL successfully bounces back, Buffalo's outlook improves considerably.
The power play is the other major factor that could derail the Sabres' season. It's an area that has really hurt the team over the past two years.
Buffalo ranked 24th with the man advantage in 2024-25 (18.8%) and 28th in 2023-24 (16.6%). That's not good enough regardless of the context, but it's even more unforgivable when you consider the presence of Thompson, one of the league's best PP weapons.
The power-play struggles are at the core of why it's so surprising the Sabres opted not to make any changes to the coaching staff over the summer. It feels like some new ideas from coaches outside the organization would have been welcomed.
Ultimately, the Sabres are a fringe playoff team, so they need a lot of things to fall right to finally end the drought. It all starts with goaltending and the power play, though.