The Buffalo Sabres' first second-round opponent in 19 years has been confirmed. After defeating the Tampa Bay Lightning by a 2-1 scoreline in Game 7 of their opening-round series, the Montreal Canadiens will serve as Buffalo's second 2026 playoff foe.
With the series opener in Buffalo set for Wednesday night, one can start to prepare for the matchup by looking back at some of the factors that defined Montreal's success against the former repeat Stanley Cup champions from Tampa Bay. In doing so, it will be possible to begin determining what will and will not define success for Buffalo during this second-round series.
Get ready for Operation Red Bay
Or whatever the Buffalo version of it will be.
Operation 49th Parallel? That would be a cool name.
For context, HFTV Sports, arguably the most renowned Canadiens fan channel, successfully helped Habs fans to fill the seats at all four Tampa Bay home games during their first-round matchup. By partnering with Mise-O-Jeu, the sports betting arm of Quebec's provincial betting corporation Loto Québec, the channel was able to distribute rally towels to Habs fans in attendance at Benchmark International Arena and create an established road support during the series.
Benchmark International Arena isn't the only NHL arena to have been taken over (or plundered if you want to use a pirate-related term) by Montreal's faithful. Arenas across the NHL, including Ottawa's Canadian Tire Centre (also known as Bell Centre 2.0), have frequently been taken over by Habs fans and have seen home ice advantage turned right against the hosts.
While Sabres fans have been able to make their voices heard during the first round against Boston, the Habs fanbase presents a whole new challenge. This is especially true when considering the fact that Buffalo is only six hours by car from La Belle Province.
Clinching home-ice advantage was a big thing for Buffalo heading into the postseason, but maintaining it will be key. Though the Sabres proved capable of winning all three times at TD Garden, keeping the KeyBank Center a friendly environment will be important.
Mr. Saturday is a thing, but the Habs might not need to get too many shots on goal to win
Take three good guesses at how many shots on goal the Canadiens recorded during Game 7 against the Lightning.
I'll give you three seconds before scrolling down to the next sentence.
The Habs recorded a grand total of nine shots on goal.
Yes, NINE shots on goal.
And they still won Game 7.
The Lightning outshot the Habs by 20 and defended till the cows came home against a Habs team that was hungry to redeem a close Game 6 loss on home ice.
Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, the cows remained away. They ended up partying like its 1993 and ordering enough pizza to summon forward Phillip Danault from the away locker room of Benchmark International Arena. Don't worry, no cows were harmed in the cooking of this pizza joke.
Pizza and cow jokes aside, the Habs proved on Sunday that success might not come from having a top-five scoring offense. Tampa Bay scored almost 0.10 goals per game more than Montreal and they still had trouble putting pressure on Habs goaltender Jakub Dobes. And during the final stretch of the third period, the Habs were able to get behind Tampa Bay's press and create several empty net chances, ultimately falling short to blocks and Brendon Hagel stick checks galore.
Considering that the Sabres were right behind the Bolts in the goalscoring department, that should almost definitely spell trouble. Buffalo has consistently been a team that commits players into an offensive scheme that puts pressure in the opposing team's end and creates a high level of scoring chances; the Sabres were fifth in the league in shooting percentage (defined as the number of goals that result from a given amount of shots on goal as expressed in a percent). The Sabres also found success against the Bruins by pinning them in the offensive zone and forcing Boston to commit defenders the other way to prevent goals
But that style of play can hurt Buffalo. While the Sabres had the league's third-best save percentage, they were just 10th in the league in goals against per game and they gave up the eighth-most amount of shots.
Elsewhere, the Lightning were able to keep Habs forward Cole Caufield off the scoresheet for much of the series. Despite recording four points in the first four games of the series (one goal and three assists), Caufield was blanked during the final three contests. That said, the Habs went 3-1 in games where Caufield didn't record a point, with the lone loss being the 1-0 overtime loss in Game 6.
Andrei Vasilevskiy proved why goaltending is massive for Buffalo's success
In three of the first five games of the series, the Lightning gave up at least three goals to the Canadiens.
In the final two games of the series, they conceded just two goals on 39 combined shots. Game 6 acted as a 30-save shutout for Bolts goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy; though he didn't have the greatest of Game 7 performances, that Game 6 performance can show Buffalo why strong goaltending is a must against Montreal.
The Habs finished just two spots behind the Sabres in terms of goal scoring, recording just 0.05 goals per game fewer than the Atlantic Division winners. But at the same time, they were the better power-play team throughout the regular season, converting eight more power-play goals than the Sabres.
The entrance of goaltender Alex Lyon was arguably the turning point for the Sabres' first-round encounter with the Bruins. The Bruins had controlled all but eight minutes of the series prior to his introduction in place of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen; while Luukkonen had given up seven goals to the Bruins during his two games in action, Lyon gave up just five goals through four games, one of which was a near-shutout.
Strong goaltending has long been seen as a hallmark of a deep playoff run. Vasilevskiy proved that in 2020 and 2021, with Moneypuck projecting that he saved almost 35 goals above expected during Tampa Bay's consecutive Stanley Cup victories. They also found that, of the 16 Stanley Cup winning goaltenders from 2009 to 2024, all but three had a positive goals saved above expected measure.
If it wasn't clear before that Lyon was capable of backstopping a team to a positive result, then Buffalo's first-round performance has removed any doubt in that regard. After his performance in the first round, Lyon boasts a goals saved above expected measure of 5.74, the fifth-best measure of any postseason goaltender. He also boasts a goals saved above average of 5.06, the second-best value of all playoff goaltenders; only Carolina's Frederik Andersen has a higher value, and he's clearly been the best goaltender in this postseason.
At the surface level, Lyon recorded a whopping .955 save percentage and a 1.14 goals against average in his performance against the Bruins.
That said, Dobes recorded a goals saved above expected measure of 8.55, well above Lyon's value, though his goals saved above average was almost two goals saved lower than that of the Sabres netminder.
Whether the trends seen in the opening round continue during the second round remains to be seen. But all of the above statistics prove that Lyon is going to need to be at the top of his game if he is to continue the run seen during the first round while also giving his team a chance to take the series against the Habs.
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