It's only late October but it's already starting to look like the Buffalo Sabres are destined to find themselves in an 84-game fight for a playoff spot in the NHL's Eastern Conference.
The Sabres are off to a modest 6-4-3 start, which is only good enough for 11th in the East and seventh in the highly competitive Atlantic Division.
Although it's too early to suggest Buffalo is any sort of trouble, it sure doesn't appear last season's breakthrough club will waltz to another postseason appearance. The Blue and Gold ended the longest playoff drought in NHL history (14 seasons) in the spring.
Perhaps Hockey Alchemy described it best, putting the Sabres in the "coin flip" category of their projected final league standings:
NHL projected points tiers, 2026-27 · through Oct 29
— Hockey Alchemy (@hockeyalchemy) October 30, 2026
Cup favourites: CAR, COL, TBL, VGK, UTA
Lottery bound: CGY, PHI, CHI, VAN#NHL pic.twitter.com/0vnQMSY0he
Other outlets agree with the assessment, too:
Outlet | Sabres Playoff Odds |
|---|---|
HockeyStats.com | 50% |
HockeyViz | 48.2% |
The Athletic | 47% |
MoneyPuck | 41.1% |
A combination of factors gives Buffalo an uncertain path forward.
The Sabres have yet to play a complete hockey game this season. Their goaltending has faltered, the offense wasn't firing on all cylinders until Thursday night's 7-6 win over the Anaheim Ducks and both special teams units have been a mess at times.
They've managed to overcome those issues well enough to at least stack some points, which is a promising sign, but their overall level of play must increase exponentially.
Then there's the outside elements.
HockeyStats.com projects just an 11-point difference between the final playoff spot in the East (the Sabres at 96 points) and the last-place Detroit Red Wings (85 points). By comparison, there's a 24-point gap between the same two positions in the Western Conference.
Furthermore, their predicted standings show six teams separated by just two points for the wild-card berths in the conference: the Sabres, Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Toronto Maple Leafs, Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Rangers.
Talk about a small margin for error. That's why it's crucial Buffalo has been able to stick in the middle of the pack while searching for top form.
An extended winning streak or ill-timed losing skid could always change the numbers drastically but, at least as things currently stand, the Sabres will likely be battling for a spot all the way until April.
Sabres can't rest their hopes on another historic run
The reflex among Buffalo fans may be to point out the team also started slow last year (11-14-4 record through 29 games) and still reached the playoffs with 14 points to spare.
It's not that simple. That required one of the best runs in NHL history. The Sabres posted a 39-9-5 record over their final 53 games. That's 83 of possible 106 points. You can bank on that happening again, especially given the strength of the East.
That's why general manager Jarmo Kekalainen stressed the importance of not resting on last season's laurels at the beginning of training camp. It was always going to make a more sustained effort from start to finish to make the playoffs again.
Buffalo's underlying numbers are still mostly promising. It's 10th in all-situations expected goal share (52.5%, per Natural Stat Trick) despite lackluster performance on the power play and penalty kill, and its 27th-ranked PDO (0.979) suggests some puck luck may be on the horizon.
The Sabres should also get veteran goaltender Alex Lyon back at some point. They used a highly effective three-goalie rotation last season, but Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Colten Ellis have struggled to provide consistency working as a two-man tandem so far.
Those factors, along with the organization's young players becoming more comfortable in their new and/or increased roles following the departures of Alex Tuch and Bowen Byram, do leave a lot room for optimism in Western New York.
Nevertheless, at some point head coach Lindy Ruff's group needs to start stringing together some strong 60-minute efforts. Buffalo has played extremely well in spurts but there are too many lapses, including the latter stages of Thursday's third period against the Ducks.
Treading water is fine when a team isn't playing its best hockey but eventually the Sabres need to start climbing the standings in a more consistent manner.
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