The Buffalo Sabres, on Saturday, know for a fact they are moving onto the second round, but they are going to have to wait until the end of the weekend to find out which team will be coming to Western New York for Game 1 of the next series. The Sabres will either be playing the Montreal Canadiens or Tampa Bay Lightning in the next round, but both teams have one more game, as the Lightning pushed their series to Game 7 with a win on Friday in overtime.
For the Sabres and their fans, the question is which of these two teams presents a better matchup for Buffalo. The good news is that the Sabres have played both teams plenty this season, with four games against each.
However, the bad news is that there really isn't a clear team the Sabres have the advantage over. Let's take a look at each opponent and make the case why they would and would not want to play them.
Sabres would want the Montreal Canadiens due to their stars struggling
The Montreal Canadiens have been able to push the Lightning to Game 7 and have done so largely without much from their top players. The trio of Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, and Juraj Slafkovsky has combined for only one point through six games in 5v5 situations.
Goals have been hard to come by in this series between the two teams, and the Canadiens have seen their per game average drop from 3.40 goals per game in the regular season to 2.33 in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Sabres have remained pretty consistent at 3.33 goals per game in the playoffs after averaging 3.45 goals per game.
The struggles of their top players combined with the playoff inexperience, could make the Montreal Canadiens the better matchup.
Sabres don't want to play the Canadiens due to the fact they match up well with their speed
One of the advantages the Sabres have, and that was on display against the Boston Bruins, is that they are one of the faster, better skating teams in the league. From the forwards to the defensemen, the Sabres move well on the ice and can beat teams to the puck.
However, the Canadiens are similar to the Sabres in being a fast team that can skate well. They do a good job of having their defensemen join the rush in Lane Hutson and Noah Dobson, who has been out in these playoffs be appears close to returning.
In the four meetings these two teams have had in the regular season, the Sabres have a 2-2-0 record and the goals scored are even for both teams at 13. It is also worth noting that the two losses the Sabres suffered to the Canadiens, it was Alex Lyon in net who should be the starter going into the second round.
Sabres would want to play the Tampa Bay Lightning after more regular season success
Unlike the Montreal Canadiens, the Buffalo Sabres have clearly had an advantage in the games these two teams have played this season. Through four games, the Sabres have gone 3-0-1, and they were painfully close to sweeping the Lightning as Tampa Bay would score the tying goal in the closing seconds of the third period before winning in overtime.
One of the things that the Sabres have done well in the four games is match their physicality and that was on display in the exciting 8-7 win back in March. The Lightning clearly came in with a game plan of trying to hit the Sabres as a way to rattle them.
However, the Sabres responded well and forced the Lightning to not only change the game plan in that game but also play them differently in their next meeting. It didn't matter, though, as the Sabres won that game as well by a final score of 4-2.
Sabres don't want to play the Lightning as they are playoff tested with an excellent goalie
There is one clear advantage the Lightning have over the Buffalo Sabres, and that is they are playoff-tested. They have been to the playoffs 12 of the past 13 seasons and won the Stanley Cup twice during that stretch.
One of the reasons the Lightning have had the success they have is because of their goaltending and Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has won the Conn Smythe Trophy once in his career back in 2021. In the six games against the Canadiens, he has a save percentage of .905 and a goals against average of only 2.20 after securing a shutout in Game 6 on the road.
During the season, the Sabres have had success against him as he allowed 11 goals in three starts and was the only team to score double digit goals against. However, in the playoffs he seems to just flip a switch and become almost unbeatable.
Now the Sabres have shown they can have success against him in the regular season but also beat great goalies in the plaoyffs, like they did against Jeremy Swayman. It may not be as big of an advantage but if the Sabres were to play the Lightning and lose the series, it probably would be due in large part to Vasilevskiy.
Regardless of whichever team emerges from the series between the Canadiens and Lightning, the Buffalo Sabres are going to need to have their best effort if they hope to move on to the Eastern Conference Finals.
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