Colten Ellis had the big performance for the Buffalo Sabres as they defeated the Columbus Blue Jackets on Thursday night and maintained control of first place in the Atlantic Division. With the Tampa Bay Lightning losing to the Montreal Canadiens, the path to home-ice advantage for at least the first round just became a lot clearer.
The three games that will impact the Sabres' postseason seeding on Saturday see the Lightning heading to Boston for a game against the Bruins, one that also serves as a rematch of the chaotic Stadium Series encounter between the two teams. Elsewhere, Montreal will play its last home game of the regular season against the Columbus Blue Jackets, while the Carolina Hurricanes will continue their season-ending road trip when they fly to Salt Lake City for a game against the Utah Mammoth.
The Sabres may be off on Saturday, but they can get within striking distance of home-ice advantage
The Canadiens, who are now second in the Atlantic Division, will play host to a Blue Jackets squad that is looking to remain in striking distance of the Flyers. As the Blue Jackets have control of the regulation wins tiebreaker, all they would need to do is match the Flyers' final point total and ensure that the Islanders and Capitals - both of whom have more regulation wins than the Jackets - don't match their own point tally.
As the Sabres have already clinched the regulation wins tiebreaker on Montreal, a loss in regulation for the Habs will put Buffalo in position to secure home-ice advantage as soon as Sunday. An overtime loss or a Habs win against Columbus would require that the Sabres earn at least a point against Chicago on Monday to maintain control of a top-two spot in the division.
The Bruins beat Buffalo in March, but they can earn some redemption against Tampa Bay
While the Habs are the newest direct rival to the Sabres' division title push, the Lightning still have a fighter's chance at securing their first division title since 2019. Sitting four points back of Buffalo with a game in hand, they could still regain control of a top-two spot in the division if results went their way.
That said, a road contest against the Bruins could still derail that. If Tampa Bay loses to Boston in regulation, it would mean that the Bolts' division title chances rely on the team winning out, the Sabres losing their final two games, and the Habs going no better than 1-1-1 through their final three games.
This edition of the "Hurricane Watch" takes us to Salt Lake City
As of this writing, all three teams that are left on Carolina's regular-season schedule are either locked into postseason berths, looking to improve their seeding, or pushing to secure spots in the playoffs. The Mammoth are currently locked into a playoff spot, but they still need to put some points on the board to secure the top wild-card spot.
Meanwhile, both the Flyers and Islanders are in contention for the final playoff spot available in the Metropolitan Division, with just one point separating the two teams. It's also worth noting that three points separate the Flyers, who hold that final spot, and the sixth-place Capitals.
Buffalo will need Carolina to earn a maximum of two points over that stretch for the Sabres to have a shot at the East's top seed. The good news is that the Sabres clinched the regulation wins tiebreaker on the Hurricanes courtesy of their 5-0 win over Columbus on Thursday night. As long as Carolina doesn't pass the 110-point mark, Buffalo could match Carolina's final point tally and overtake them in the Eastern Conference standings.
Given the above, the message is now very clear. The Sabres need the Hurricanes to start dropping games, and it starts with their game against the Mammoth.
The full rooting guide for Saturday
A Habs loss in regulation vs the Blue Jackets
A Lightning loss in regulation vs the Bruins
A Hurricanes loss to the Mammoth