The Buffalo Sabres' season seems to just go from bad to worse as they lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning by a final score of 8-3 on Wednesday and followed it up with a 3-2 overtime loss to the Chicago Blackhawks, arguably one of the worst teams in the NHL.
They are now 8-7-4 this season, and when trying to understand why they are struggling, the first answer is typically the loss of Alex Tuch. There is no question that the Sabres are missing Tuch, and it is the easy answer, but the Sabres have a much bigger problem that goes deeper than just losing one player.
When looking at where the Sabres are right now and why they are struggling, these are the bigger issues facing this team.
Goaltending
Last season, the Buffalo Sabres got some excellent goaltending with the trio of Alex Lyon, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, and Colten Ellis. These three combined for the 10th-best goals against average of 2.93 and the third-best save percentage of .907. According to MoneyPuck, the Sabres had the fifth-best goals against average above expected at -24.51.
This season has been almost the complete opposite as they have the sixth-worst goals against average at 3.53, the third-worst save percentage at .807, and the seventh-worst goals against above expected at +4.74.
The Sabres were hoping that Alex Lyon might be able to help this group, and he did make his season debut on Thursday against the Chicago Blackhawks. It wasn't the best Lyon has played, but he made some good saves, allowing three goals on 25 shots.
If the Sabres want to get back to the playoffs, they need better goaltending, and that either means this group turns it around, and quickly, or the front office needs to start looking at trade options.
Veterans regressing
The plan for the Buffalo Sabres to replace Alex Tuch was they were going to lean on their younger players to take that next step, like Jack Quinn, Zach Benson, Konsta Helenius, Jiri Kulich and Josh Doan. While Quinn and Benson have played well, the other three haven't made the impact the team would have hoped.
However, the bigger issue is not the struggles of their younger players but rather the struggles of their veterans. The trio of Josh Norris, Ryan McLeod, and Jason Zucker have combined for only 13 points so far this season, or about .28 points per game played. Last season, these three combined for 133 points or .71 points per game played.
Even if these younger players were able to replace the lost production from Alex Tuch, the Sabres would still be dealing with a lot of these issues, with this trio providing so little.
Penalty kill falls to being one of the league worst
The Buffalo Sabres' power play was bad last season and continues to be bad this season. While it would be great if they were better, they were able to win games without a good power play so this is not the issue.
However, the penalty kill is a different story as they were one of the better penalty-kill units last season to having the fifth-worst with a penalty-kill percentage of 69.7%. Last season, the Sabres only allowed 42 power-play goals in 82 games, but this season they have given up 20 through 19 games.
To make matters worse, the Sabres were one of the best at generating short-handed goals and had the second-most with 11. This season, that total is only one, and while Tuch was great at this and had three last season, it was actually Ryan McLeod who led the league with five.
The Sabres inability to stop teams on the power play, combined with their own struggles to generate short-handed chances, has only magnified how much this group has regressed.
Sabres unable to generate and convert high-danger chances
Last season, the Buffalo Sabres were one of the best teams in 5v5 situations in converting high-danger chances and had the third-best high-danger shooting percentage at 20.95%. This season, they are the 10th-worst, as the percentage has dropped by over five points to 15.84%, according to Natural Stat Trick.
For the Sabres, it isn't just the fact that the percentage is lower; their chances are, too. Last season, the Sabres had three players (Jason Zucker, Josh Doan, and Zach Benson) with over five high-danger chances per 60 minutes. This season, the Sabres have only two (Benson and Sam Carrick), but Carrick hasn't had much of a role this season and has played in only 10 of the games with limited ice time.
There is no question that Alex Tuch was a big part of the Buffalo Sabres last season, and a big part of their success. The Sabres certainly miss him but his absence isn't the only reason they are struggling and these are the areas they should be trying to address.
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