This season's NHL playoff race is one that has shown its ability to evolve very quickly, especially at this point of the season when teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs and New Jersey Devils are slowly but surely fading out and the final playoff contenders are taking form. While the standings don't show 10 teams within seven points of one another, things are still close towards the edge of the playoff picture, something that does apply to the Buffalo Sabres despite them being positioned quite comfortably inside the playoff picture.
Last week, the Detroit Red Wings had control of a top-three spot in the Atlantic Division and looked to be on course for a return to the playoffs. Not only that, but they were also seen as the Sabres' most likely first-round opponent.
Oh how things have changed, and dramatically at that.
Since the Red Wings' 3-0 win over Detroit to start the week, they have lost each of their last three games while picking up a solitary overtime point against the Dallas Stars. Detroit has also won just two games since the end of the Olympic break, allowing for teams like the Ottawa Senators and Columbus Blue Jackets to draw ever closer to the Wings. What's worse for Detroit is that both the Jackets and Senators control their destiny when it comes to the playoff race; while the Senators are two points further back than Columbus and three back of Detroit, both teams have a game in hand and one more head-to-head matchup with the Red Wings.
If the Wings fall out of the picture in any form, it'll be the third time in as many seasons that Detroit has held some form of advantage for a playoff spot only to lose control of it when the calendar flips to March. A seven-game losing streak that bridged February and March 2024 saw the Wings fall out of the picture that season while a six-game losing streak occurred at the exact same time the following season. This time around, it's poor form that bridges February and March and sets the stage for yet another Red Wings collapse.
Is Detroit a playoff threat at this moment? It would be fun, but the math is starting to go against a Wings-Sabres clash
To bring this back to the 2025-26 Buffalo Sabres, it isn't really a matter of if the playoff picture sees significant change, or even when. It's a question of what degree of change is seen.
And we might already be seeing it. In terms of the schedule, after hosting the Calgary Flames, Detroit will play the Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins, and Senators in succession before their game against the Sabres.
For Buffalo, that March 27th game at KeyBank Center was supposed to be both a potential playoff preview and a clash for divisional seeding. There's always the chance it becomes a playoff preview once more, but it seems to be more of a chance for Buffalo to push the Wings away from the playoff picture.
But does Buffalo need to worry about playing Detroit anymore, or is there a new team that could be a first-round threat? The odds do suggest change in the Sabres' potential playoff opposition; despite being on a two-game losing streak, the Canadiens are now favored to be Buffalo's first playoff opponent since 2011. The Habs have 25%, or 1-in-4 odds, of being Buffalo's first-round opponent while Boston is tied with Detroit at a 22% chance of playing the Sabres to open the playoffs.
How to assess Montreal in the face of on-again, off-again form?
Considering the above, let's take a look at the Habs as a potential playoff opponent.
In terms of the regular-season series, the Sabres went 2-2-0 against the Canadiens through their four head-to-head matchups. Though the two teams essentially drew the season series, the equal nature of the four encounters does provide some interesting points worthy of consideration.
The first meeting between these two teams saw the Habs end Buffalo's two-game mini-win-streak with a 4-2 win at the Bell Centre. Almost three months later, the two teams would play three games in over two weeks of action. The first two games went to Buffalo by respective 5-3 and 4-2 scorelines, while the final game went to Montreal by a 4-2 scoreline. If one were to add all the goals for and goals against, that gives an equal goal difference between the Habs and Sabres, with both teams scoring 13 goals each.
It's also worth noting that the Sabres and Habs didn't just split the series 2-2, but the respective home records were also even; both Buffalo and Montreal were 1-1 while hosting games in the season series.
In short, a seven-game series between the Sabres and Habs could very well go the distance, with home-ice advantage proving all the more crucial during the final three games of the series.
But like with Detroit, the question is not just one of whether the Habs will actually play the Sabres in the playoffs but also whether the Habs will actually make the playoffs altogether. Despite winning three straight between March 7 and March 11, the Habs have lost four of their last seven games, with all four losses coming against the San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks. Even with the three wins considered, the win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on March 10 might be the only victory that's even close to a complete effort; the Habs were saved by strong goaltending against Ottawa and they needed to convert a third-period comeback to beat the Los Angeles Kings.
This week will be important in terms of whether Buffalo may have to start preparing for Montreal or if fans need to turn their attention elsewhere. The Habs will play Boston and Detroit during the week while a home game against the playoff-contending New York Islanders awaits on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Sabres will have a chance to cement their place in the upper-echelon of the Eastern Conference and test themselves against playoff opposition; they'll head to Vegas on Tuesday before travelling to California to take on the Sharks, Kings, and Ducks.
If the Habs win two of three and the Sabres split, then there's a decent chance that Buffalo will need to focus on a potential matchup with Montreal. The same could be true if the Habs win one of three and the Sabres turn three of four into wins, though Buffalo would only reinforce their control of the Atlantic while Montreal would more than likely slide into a Wild Card slot.
What's the verdict for Buffalo?
In all, while it's worth refocusing one's attention to potentially playing the Habs in a first-round series, there's still lots to decide. Not only do the Sabres need to lock in their own seeding but Montreal will need to at worst survive their upcoming stretch. And the Wild Card picture could easily change over the next few days; there's even the possibility that the Senators break into the playoff picture and take Detroit's place.
But right now, it's time for Buffalo to start thinking about locking things down in its own end and not needing to worry too much about what goes on beneath in the standings. Leave the postseason prognostications to the fans.
I'm a numbers guy and I love taking time to crunch the data and see what kind of scenarios come up from looking at all the relevant statistics. But even by crunching the numbers, I see there's a lot that needs to be decided in the Eastern Conference Wild Card race. Five points separate Montreal from third in the Atlantic to Ottawa, the second team out of the playoff picture; Boston, Detroit, and Columbus are all sandwiched right in between. What's more is that the Washington Capitals have somehow survived and made up part of the games played picture, while the Philadelphia Flyers still have to play Detroit three times.
Right now, I'd say let's tentatively settle on Montreal and see where the chips fall over the next month.