The Buffalo Sabres' first chance at securing home-ice advantage for the first round of the playoffs came and went on Sunday.
But this was by no fault of their own. The Montreal Canadiens, who entered Sunday two points behind Buffalo in the Atlantic Division standings, were expected to be drawn into a tough contest against a New York Islanders side that needed to win out just to keep their playoff hopes alive. Alas, the Habs secured the 4-1 victory, eliminating the Isles from postseason contention while also delaying another celebration for the Sabres.
Monday will represent the Sabres' second chance at securing home ice; this time, they will have the chance to finish the job themselves. Not only that, but they will also have their first opportunity to secure the Atlantic Division title and, by extension, home-ice advantage for at least the first two rounds of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The Sabres will have the chance to do so when they take on the Chicago Blackhawks at 8:30 p.m. ET. They'll also need to rely on the result of the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Detroit Red Wings, whose game gets started an hour-and-a-half before Buffalo's. In terms of the Sabres' hopes to top the Eastern Conference, fans will be keen to keep an eye on the game between the Carolina Hurricanes and Philadelphia Flyers.
Montreal's win on Sunday delays another clincher for the Sabres ...
The Habs' 4-1 win over the Islanders gave Montreal some life in the race for home-ice advantage and the Atlantic Division. Having played one game more than the Sabres and the third-place Lightning, the Habs are now level with the Sabres on points but they are still one position behind by virtue of losing the regulation wins tiebreaker.
That said, the number of options that gets Buffalo to home-ice advantage for the first round has increased. Whereas only a Habs loss in regulation to the Islanders would have given Buffalo home-ice advantage yesterday, the Sabres can now clinch home ice in the first round with a win of any kind over the Blackhawks. Alternatively, they would clinch home-ice advantage in the first round with a point against Chicago and a Lightning loss to the Red Wings in regulation.
... but the Sabres could secure two positions for the price of one
More importantly, Monday presents the Sabres with their first chance at clinching the Atlantic Division. While there are also two paths that take the Sabres to the top spot in the division, they each come with additional conditions. The most basic path to the Atlantic Division title requires any Buffalo win over Chicago and any Tampa Bay loss to Detroit. The second path allows for a Tampa Bay overtime win, but it comes with the condition of the Sabres defeating the Blackhawks in regulation.
One more episode of Hurricane Watch? Or can the Flyers cause a temporary dissipation?
Why am I suddenly thinking of all these hurricane-themed words? I guess I'll never know.
But if the Sabres are to overtake Carolina for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, they're going to need the hurricane that is this Carolina team to find their way towards the hockey equivalent of the North Atlantic Ocean. And quickly at that; unfortunately for the Sabres, we're not working with a Conference Final matchup against the Florida Panthers or a second round series against the New York Rangers.
The good news is that the Hurricanes are playing a Flyers team that can end a five-year playoff drought with a win of any kind on Monday night. The Flyers will more than likely want to clinch their postseason spot without any kind of Tuesday drama, so this could be a game that goes either way. The Sabres benefit so long as it doesn't go to overtime; a Hurricanes win over the Flyers or any overtime result would give the Eastern Conference's top seed to Carolina.
Such a result for the Hurricanes would also ensure that the Sabres' best-case scenario for the first round is a series with the top wild-card team. Not only are the Sabres currently projected to face the Boston Bruins in the first round, but the chance of such a matchup taking place is now given a 44% chance of happening.
The full Buffalo Sabres rooting guide for Monday, April 13
A Sabres win over the Blackhawks (preferably in regulation)
Any overtime result in the Lightning-Red Wings game OR a Red Wings win over the Lightning in regulation
A Flyers win over the Hurricanes in regulation