The Buffalo Sabres made a monster bet on Josh Norris when they acquired him from the Ottawa Senators in March as the cornerstone of the blockbuster Dylan Cozens trade. The front office now has nine months to decide whether it should to remain committed to the center or try to cash out.
That's because Norris' eight-year, $63.6 million contract includes a 10-team no-trade clause that goes into effective July 1, 2026. From that point forward it would be difficult, if not impossible, to create enough leverage in trade talks to generate fair-market return value.
It puts a lot of pressure on the 26-year-old Michigan native to produce a bounce-back 2025-26 season after multiple injury-filled campaigns. Purely from an offensive talent perspective, he's still capable of emerging as a long-term No. 1 or No. 2 center for Buffalo.
Analyzing Norris' NHL track record
The 2017 first-round pick has already been traded twice in his career. He arrived to Ottawa before playing a single NHL game as part of the Erik Karlsson return package from the San Jose Sharks. Then he joined the Sabres ahead of last season's trade deadline.
Norris got off to a terrific start with the Sens. He posted 35 points (17 goals and 18 assists) in 56 games as a rookie during the 2020-21 campaign to finish fourth in Calder Trophy voting. He backed that up with a career-high 55 points on the strength of 35 goals in 2021-22.
The 6-foot-1 forward suffered a pair of shoulder injuries during the 2022-23 season that limited him to just eight appearances, though. He's proceeded to miss 56 contests combined over the past two seasons because of various ailments.
In all, his production rate is strong with 158 points, 163 blocked shots and 382 hits in 239 NHL games, but an inability to avoid injured reserve has capped his true impact.
Realistic goals for the center in 2025-26
Quite simply, it'll be a massive success if Norris can play 70-plus games for the Sabres this season, and his numbers will probably take care of themselves if he does.
That's easier said than done, of course. Buffalo has a player in a similar situation with winger Jordan Greenway, who made 81 appearances in his first full NHL season but has never played more than 67 games over the past six years. Once injuries start popping up regularly, they're hard to shake off.
Nevertheless, the Sabres need Norris to stay on the ice if they're going to make a serious push toward ending their 14-year playoff drought.
The University of Michigan product will center one of the team's top two lines depending on whether Tage Thompson opens the year in the middle or on the wing. That decision could hinge on whether Jiri Kulich looks primed to take a significant step forward in his second full NHL campaign.
If Norris lands on the top line with Thompson — Jason Zucker or Zach Benson would make the most sense as the third player on that line — he'd have a great opportunity to post a new career-best point total. That's once again contingent on staying healthy, though.
What is Norris' long-term Sabres outlook?
Ideally for Buffalo, the American pivot will firmly establish himself as a key piece of their future foundation and any trade thoughts will evaporate before next offseason.
Norris explained part of the reason he didn't return in the final stages of last season was to ensure he could have a healthy summer to train properly ahead of the 2025-26 campaign.
"It's just something where, I think if you play with that, especially at this stage of the season, then you can really mess your summer training up," he told reporters in April. "I just didn't think it was worth that, especially given my history the last couple of years — not being able to train properly and things like that because of my shoulder. I thought it was important that that this summer was a healthy one and one that I can not have to worry about."
Yet, the reality is the Sabres are facing a make-or-break season. It's quite possible a 15th straight year out of the postseason would lead to a massive organizational overhaul, including the potential departures of general manager Kevyn Adams and head coach Lindy Ruff.
If that's the outcome, it wouldn't be a shock if the new front office decision-makers opt to make Norris available before his trade protection kicks in, especially if injuries are a central theme again.
In the end, one thing's for sure: Norris is among the Sabres' most important players this season, so it'll be a worrisome sign about the franchise's direction if he's back on the trade block next summer.