There were 718 NHL skaters who played at least 200 minutes of 5-on-5 hockey last season. None of them had a higher PDO than Buffalo Sabres defenseman Zach Metsa.
PDO is a combined measure of a team's shooting percentage and save percentage when a player is on the ice. It's often considered a "puck luck" stat since numbers on the highest or lowest ends of the spectrum are typically ripe for regression toward the mean.
In Metsa's case, he didn't make a significant offensive impact (six points in 43 appearances) but the Sabres still managed to outscore opponents 24-9 when he was out there at even strength, according to Natural Stat Trick.
The 27-year-old Wisconsin native, an undrafted defender who played five years at Quinnipiac University before signing with the Buffalo organization in 2023, played well enough to earn a one-year extension for the 2027-28 season, a deal signed in early September.
He was originally ticketed to serve as the Sabres' No. 7 reserve defenseman to open the new campaign, but injuries to Mattias Samuelsson (week-to-week; lower body) and Olen Zellweger (concussion protocol) will likely see the "PDO God" join the lineup for Opening Night instead.
Although Metsa isn't a flashy player — in fact, it'd probably be fair to call him a boring contributor — he earned the trust of Buffalo head coach Lindy Ruff with steady defensive play, strong work in the corners and safe outlet passes to get the club out of danger.
That's exactly what coaches want from a player who's on the roster fringe. If you're called upon, don't make any game-changing mistakes. Keep it simple.
Metsa can handle those responsibilities and, even if his PDO drops down to a more normal level in 2026-27, he does enough good things to remain dependable in a niche, sheltered role.
Updated Sabres defensive depth chart after Samuelsson, Zellweger injuries
Although Ruff didn't formally rule out Samuelsson or Zellweger for the team's season opener, an Oct. 1 road game against the Columbus Blue Jackets, there's only a week before puck drop, which seems like a quick turnaround for either player, especially Samuelsson.
So, the Sabres will probably have to shake things up, at least for a short period of time. Here's a look at how the defense pairs currently look, including the main reserves:
Left Defense | Right Defense |
|---|---|
Rasmus Dahlin | Louis Crevier |
Owen Power | Conor Timmins |
Dennis Gilbert | Zach Metsa |
Ryan Johnson | Radim Mrtka |
Talk about a promotion for Louis Crevier, who arrived to Buffalo over the summer as part of the blockbuster Bowen Byram trade with the Chicago Blackhawks. He jumps from the bottom pair to playing alongside captain Rasmus Dahlin.
Crevier showed some promising signs when thrust into a top-four role for the Hawks at times last season, and his main duty will be playing solid net-front defense to make sure Dahlin is able to retain freedom to join the rush offensively.
Power and Timmins have experience on the same pair — they generated a 49.5% expected goal share in 168 5-on-5 minutes together last season, per NST — and could be asked to handle a lot of tough situations early on while the other tandems build defensive-zone chemistry.
Metsa and Dennis Gilbert won't see a ton of ice time but keeping opponents off the scoreboard in that limited role will still be important.
Beyond that, Ryan Johnson is likely the "next man up" in another injury issue arose, but the Sabres would probably sign a veteran free agent (perhaps a Logan Stanley reunion?) or make a trade before asking prospect Radim Mrtka to play at the NHL level right now.
Mrtka still has a lot of promise thanks to his combination of size (6'6'') and skill, but his offensive game has been slow to evolve. He's going to need at least one season (probably more like two or three) with the AHL's Rochester Americans for development purposes.
Finally, it'll be interesting to see how the Sabres handle their final preseason contest against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday. Although teams usually ice their main lineup for exhibition home games, the injury risk defensively may see Dahlin and Power take the day off instead.
Buffalo can't afford any more absences on the blue line if it wants to avoid a slow start.
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