It was a good weekend for Buffalo Sabres fans.
Despite entering their Saturday game against the Seattle Kraken with losses in each of their last three games, the Sabres were able to get the 3-2 shootout win against the Kraken. The win ensured they would at least remain tied with the Tampa Bay Lightning for first in the Atlantic Division, while also keeping them firmly ahead of the surging Montreal Canadiens.
But this week could be even better for the Sabrehood. For the first time in three years, the Sabres have a direct path to secure a playoff berth. And they could do so as soon as this week.
A handful of games would have to go their way, but there is a mathematical possibility that they secure their playoff spot before the end of this week.
What does the path forward look like for the Sabres?
The Sabres enter Monday's NHL action with a 45-21-8 record, good for 98 points in the standings. They have a six-point lead on the Boston Bruins for a top-three spot in the Atlantic Division and a 10-point edge on the Columbus Blue Jackets for the final playoff berth available in the Eastern Conference.
Just outside the playoff picture, things are getting intense.
The Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, and Philadelphia Flyers are all tied for ninth in the Eastern Conference; all three have 86 points and nine games left to play. The Washington Capitals are the next closest team; they have 83 points with eight games remaining. That said, the Capitals would no longer be able to pass Buffalo in the standings if they lose to the Flyers on Tuesday evening.
While the Flyers and Red Wings still have to play each other twice, both teams, alongside the Senators, can still reach a maximum of 104 points in the standings. As a result, the Sabres' magic number sits at seven; any combination of points earned by Buffalo and points dropped by the ninth-place team in the East that adds to seven would get Buffalo into the playoffs.
How can Buffalo clinch an NHL playoff berth this week?
The Sabres have three games to play this week. The first is on Tuesday at home against the New York Islanders, the second is a road game against the Senators on Thursday, and the third is a road clash with the Capitals on Saturday.
Outside of the head-to-head contest against Buffalo, the Senators play two additional games this week, while the Flyers and Red Wings will also contest three games this week. The Flyers and Red Wings will play each other on Thursday in Philadelphia, making up one of those games. Meanwhile, the Flyers will play Washington on Tuesday and the Islanders on Friday, while the Red Wings will play the Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Rangers on Tuesday and Saturday, respectively.
If the Sabres win out, the magic number would go down to one regardless of what happens elsewhere. That would put Buffalo at 104 points while ensuring that Ottawa would not be able to reach that total; a 2-1-0 stretch would mean that Ottawa could only post 102 points (103 if the Senators lose in overtime).
For the Flyers and Red Wings, let's assume their head-to-head contest goes to overtime. One team would have a maximum of 91 points, while the other could only reach 92 points by the end of the week. As both teams would have six games left, only the team with 92 points could catch Buffalo by winning out; the team with 91 points could only reach a maximum of 103 points.
While the Red Wings could still tie Buffalo on 104 points and then pass them with the regulation plus overtime win tiebreaker (the Sabres currently lead the Red Wings by three in that department), Detroit can only match the Sabres' current count of 37 regulation wins, meaning that one more regulation victory for the Sabres would ensure they win any tiebreaker scenario over the Red Wings. At the same time, the Flyers cannot match the Sabres in the regulation win tiebreaker.
This rooting guide will likely change dramatically as the week goes on, but here's a basic pathway that gets the Sabres into the playoffs by weeks end:
The Sabres win out (with one or more of those coming in overtime) + the Flyers beat the Red Wings in overtime.
How the Blue Jackets could impact the Sabres' playoff push
This is a situation that is worth noting, as Columbus could also overtake the Sabres in the standings.
While the Blue Jackets winning out could potentially mean they finish in the Metropolitan Division's top three spots, it could also mean they remain relegated to the wild card spots.
Like the Senators, Flyers, and Red Wings, the Blue Jackets can still earn a maximum of 104 points. But unlike those three teams, they have the same number of games to play as the Sabres, meaning that Columbus has to find at least five more wins than the Sabres over the final eight games of the season in order to potentially overtake them. In terms of their schedule this week, the Blue Jackets have to contest a home-and-home series with the Carolina Hurricanes before hosting the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday.
The good news for Buffalo is that they can ensure they finish higher than the Blue Jackets by winning all three of their games this week. As the Sabres are guaranteed to have more regulation wins than the Blue Jackets, simply getting to 104 points would ensure that the Jackets finish behind the Sabres in the final standings.
One could include the Blue Jackets in the aforementioned pathway, but simply getting to 104 points by week's end would basically guarantee that the Sabres clinch their playoff spot with five games to go.