The Washington Capitals handed Alex Tuch an eight-year, $84 million extension ($10.5 million AAV) to finalize a trade to acquire the hardworking winger from the Buffalo Sabres in late June.
Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic already ranked that contract as the NHL's ninth-worst pact with just a 19% positive value probability heading into the 2026-27 season.
"It's difficult not to be an Alex Tuch fan after what he's shown in Buffalo the past five years," Luszczyszyn wrote Thursday. "... The deal might look OK for the first couple of years, but things could get really ugly in the second half of it as Tuch approaches 35 and beyond. A lot of Tuch's comps had a relatively harsh age curve that could spell trouble for Washington."
That's the main reason the Sabres front office, regardless of whether it was being led by Kevyn Adams or Jarmo Kekalainen, was never willing to meet Tuch's unwavering contract demands.
Luszczyszyn estimates the Caps will pay $24 million in excess value over the course of the contract, and the 6-foot-4 power forward is only projected to make an $8.7 million on-ice impact next season, meaning the deal will likely start immediately in the red.
Tuch is a highly dependable player. He was a three-zone contributor at 5-on-5 while also earning ample minutes on both the power play and the penalty kill for the Sabres. He's coming off a campaign where he posted 66 points (33 goals and 33 assists) in 79 games.
While Buffalo is going to miss his production and all-around reliability, every contract negotiation has a breaking point for each side. By all accounts, Kekalainen made a final push to keep the 2014 first-round pick, but a double-digit AAV on a max-term contract was a bridge too far.
The numbers back up Buffalo's decision to use that money elsewhere for next season and beyond.
Buffalo Sabres are betting on their young players to fill the Alex Tuch void
Barring a late-offseason addition, the Sabres will arrive to training camp with 16 forwards set to compete for 13 roster spots and only one of those will be a summer acquisition: Conor Sheary, who more than likely will open the campaign with the AHL's Rochester Americans.
Instead, Buffalo is going to rest its hopes on internal improvement from the players around offensive cornerstone Tage Thompson.
The Blue and Gold's U25 group features Zach Benson, Josh Doan, Jack Quinn, Noah Ostlund, Jiri Kulich and Konsta Helenius. Nobody from that list is going to immediately take on all of Tuch's two-way responsibilities, though Benson and Doan may eventually prove capable of the role.
Head coach Lindy Ruff will spread the minutes around. Players like Quinn and Kulich will handle more offensive tasks, while Ostlund could see his defensive usage surge. Helenius is has an well-rounded skill set but the club probably won't put too much on his plate initially.
What does that all equate to? A lot of line juggling and lineup flexibility. You'll probably see different forward lines based on the period and score until Ruff finds trios he's confident in on a full-time basis.
It likely won't be a seamless transition. Young players are prone to consistency issues at baseline, let alone when they're asked to take on high-leverage minutes. There will be mistakes.
More specifically, one area to watch is the Sabres' penalty kill, which ranked fourth in the NHL last season at 81.9% with Tuch on the first PK group. Beck Malenstyn will be asked to play more, but who else will be asked to help keep the unit among the league's elite? Perhaps Benson.
It's an example of how doing the right thing in the grand scheme of things isn't always the best outcome within a short-term lens. Losing Tuch creates a lot of questions that must be answered if Buffalo is going to make a second straight trip to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Yet, Kekalainen has made it clear his main goal is building toward sustainable success, and this summer's moves are a strong step in that direction for the Sabres.
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