It all comes down to this. Six games of wild momentum swings, shaky defensive play and a few too many weak goals allowed by the goaltenders leaves the Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens to face a do-or-die playoff battle on Monday night.
Both teams have enjoyed stretches of dominance in the clash of Atlantic Division rivals, with the Sabres putting together the latest one, an 8-3 blowout win in Game 6 on Saturday.
NHL insider Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet relayed the mindset of Buffalo and Montreal ahead of Game 7 at the KeyBank Center on Monday's edition of the 32 Thoughts podcast.
"I think the Sabres believe they're better than the Canadiens and I think the Canadiens believe they're better than the Sabres," Friedman said. "I think whoever loses this series is going to go away and say, 'We were the better team, we just didn't do it.'"
Buffalo, which owns home-ice advantage courtesy of winning the Atlantic Division title, opened the second-round series as a slight favorite. Now, 12 days later, pretty much nothing has changed. The Blue and Gold are a 59% favorite in Game 7, according to HockeyStats.com.
Yet, the unpredictable nature of this series — the clubs have alternated between looking like true Stanley Cup threats and turnover mavens lucky to reach this stage of the postseason — makes Monday's game feel more like a true 50-50 coin flip.
Friedman is right, however, in terms of the losing side likely having plenty of remorse about letting a golden opportunity slip away if it falls short in the series finale.
The Buffalo legacy of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen may hinge on Game 7 result of Sabres vs. Canadiens
It's amazing how quickly the narrative around Luukkonen flipped.
The 27-year-old netminder got pulled after the second period because of a dreadful performance in Game 5. Then, after Alex Lyon allowed three goals on four shots to open Game 6, UPL came to the rescue by stopping all 18 Habs shots he faced in Buffalo's season-saving comeback win.
Luukkonen will likely receive the Game 7 start but Sabres head coach Lindy Ruff is probably going to have a quick hook once again in the win-or-go-home contest.
"Fate has landed at the doorstep of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen," Friedman said. "You know, after Game 5 people were wondering whether that's the last game he's ever going to play for the Sabres. And now, holy smokes here he is in Game 7 four nights later and he's got a chance to prove again he's the No. 1 goalie for this franchise."
The Sportnet insider also heard from an NHL source about UPL following Game 6.
"I will say this, someone who watched the game the other night said it's hard in a small sample size to say how much better he looks, but they did say that he was much calmer in the net in Game 6 than he showed in Game 5," Friedman said. "So, maybe that's just the key for him as much as anything else. Not looking like he's all over the map and just playing calm, cool and collected. But I'm sure if you're in Buffalo right now, the idea of the season being on the line with him, he's gotta prove it to you."
It's been a wild ride for Luukkonen over the past few years.
The Finnish goalie looked like a star on the rise when he posted a .910 save percentage across 54 appearances in 2023-24, which earned him a five-year, $23.75 million contract extension from the Sabres.
UPL struggled in the first season of the new deal, though. He compiled an .887 SV% in 55 games and lost the starting job to veteran backup James Reimer during the stretch run of the 2024-25 campaign.
Luukkonen got off the a sluggish start this season after returning from injury, but he turned his year around near (American) Thanksgiving. He recorded a .913 SV% in 30 outings from late November through the end of the regular season as Buffalo skyrocketed up the standings.
The 6-foot-5 goaltender, who's playing in the NHL playoffs for the first time, has looked quite shaky so far in the postseason but the comments from Friedman's source are accurate, he did look more comfortable in relief during Game 6. Whether that'll carry over to Game 7 is a mystery.
Luukkonen's future in Buffalo remains up in the air with the organization facing a goalie logjam this summer, but he can become a hero in Western New York with a standout performance on Monday.
His play is one of the innumerable variables that'll play a determining role in whether the Sabres or Canadiens end up earning a berth in the Eastern Conference Final.
Add us as a preferred source on Google