The Buffalo Sabres finally ended the longest playoff drought in NHL history and, for the first time since 2011, they'll have an opportunity to chase a Stanley Cup title.
Buffalo won the Atlantic Division and finished second in the Eastern Conference behind only the Carolina Hurricanes. Despite the team's strong finish, which included 39 wins in its final 53 games, it's not viewed as a top-tier championship contender.
The Sabres have a 7% chance to raise the Cup, which represents the league's sixth-best odds, according to HockeyStats.com. They're behind the Canes (14%), Tampa Bay Lightning (13%), Colorado Avalanche (13%), Vegas Golden Knights (10%) and Edmonton Oilers (9%).
Yet, having a 1-in-14 chance to bring a championship parade to downtown Buffalo is still a lot better than anybody expected when the Blue and Gold were sitting in the East basement in early December.
What hurdles might the Sabres have to jump to make that dream a reality? Let's analyze.
Round 1: Boston Bruins
Boston and Buffalo, longtime rivals with a rich head-to-head history, are set to open the first round Sunday night at the KeyBank Center.
The Sabres hold home-ice advantage and are a slight favorite in the series. The underlying numbers suggest they should have a 5-on-5 edge, but the loaded nature of the Eastern Conference field means the gap between the No. 2 seed and the No. 7 seed is far less than normal.
There are two paths to a Bruins upset: goaltending and the power play.
B's goalie Jeremy Swayman bounced back from a forgettable 2024-25 campaign to post a strong .907 save percentage across 55 games. He's also been in terrific form lately, compiling a .920 SV% in 16 outings since the start of March.
Boston also features the NHL's ninth-ranked power play (23.4%). That's a massive edge over the Sabres, whose play with the man advantage has been laughably bad in recent weeks as they dropped to 20th overall at 19.5%.
Buffalo does have the ability to overcome those Bruins strengths thanks to the league's fifth-ranked offense (3.45 goals per game) and fourth-rated penalty kill (81.9%), though.
Round 2: Tampa Bay Lightning
The Atlantic race was fierce all season, so it's fitting the division produced two of the playoffs' best opening-round matchups. Along with Sabres vs. Bruins, the Lightning are set to clash with the Montreal Canadiens. The Habs' late-season surge nearly vaulted them to the divisional title.
Yet, the Bolts still feature the East's most complete roster when at full strength, and they have plenty of experience in high-pressure situations dating back to their championships in 2020 and 2021.
The Sabres and Lightning played a Game of the Year candidate in early March that featured 15 goals (an 8-7 Buffalo victory) and over 100 penalty minutes. The Blue and Gold also won the highly anticipated rematch, 4-2, in early April.
Seven games between Buffalo and Tampa would be absolute theater, and it'd be a critical litmus test to determine whether the Sabres can handle a battle-tested opponent on the biggest stage.
Eastern Conference Final: Ottawa Senators
No disrespect to the Hurricanes, who are certainly capable of making a Cup run this year, but it feels like Ottawa is the NHL's sleeping giant entering the postseason.
The Sens ranked fourth in expected goal share (53.9%), third in scoring chance share (54.8%) and fifth in high-danger chance share (54.6%) at even strength this season, per Natural Stat Trick. They also own the league's eighth-ranked power play (24.0%).
What does that mean? The Senators are a Linus Ullmark hot streak away from transforming from the last team in the East field into a legitimate Cup threat. Ullmark has struggled this year (.891 SV%), but he owned a terrific .917 SV% across his first 10 NHL seasons.
It'd also be fitting for Ottawa and Buffalo, who had one of the league's best rivalries during the Sabres' Chris Drury, Daniel Briere and Ryan Miller post-lockout era, to renew the immaculate vibes from those heated battles with an Eastern Conference title on the line.
Stanley Cup Final: Colorado Avalanche
The NHL's ridiculous playoff format — the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild having to face off in the first round is criminal, and then the winner (likely) has to face the Avs — creates the potential for an unexpected Western Conference champion.
That said, Colorado has been the team to beat pretty much from the opening puck drop of the campaign and there's no significant reason to believe that's not still the case.
The Avalanche led the NHL in both goals scored (302) and goals allowed (203), resulting in a goal differential (+99) an eye-popping 40 goals better than any other team (Tampa Bay at +59). They're not unbeatable, but they have the clear highest ceiling of any club in the tournament.
It's hard to even imagine how crazy Buffalo would be if the Sabres reach this stage. If, after years of recent playoff frustration from the NFL's Bills, the Blue and Gold return to the postseason and immediately reach the Final, it would be the ultimate storyline twist.
The Sabres would be a heavy underdog against the Avs, who won both games of the season series by a combined score of 9-4, but maybe, just maybe, they're a team of destiny.
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