The Buffalo Sabres lead the NHL in penalty kill percentage (91.2%) early in the 2025-26 season, but how they arrived at that number is a much bigger story.
Buffalo's three goalies — Alex Lyon, Colten Ellis and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen — have combined to post an astonishing .952 save percentage on the penalty kill. It's the single biggest reason the team's managed to post a 4-4-2 record despite mediocre 5-on-5 performance.
Lyon, who's started eight of the Sabres' first 10 games, has been terrific when the club is playing a man (or two) down with 56 saves on 59 shots. Ellis and UPL stopped all four shots they faced on the penalty kill in their single starts so far.
The Blue and Gold's penalty kill save percentage is 14 points higher than any other NHL team, with the Colorado Avalanche next on the list at .938, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Alex Lyon is driving the Buffalo Sabres' penalty kill success, but is it sustainable?
Unfortunately for the Sabres, there are a variety of factors that make it unlikely they'll be able to maintain that level of success for the remaining 72 games this season.
First, Lyon's track record on the penalty kill doesn't match the extraordinary play he's delivered for Buffalo so far. He compiled a .853 SV% with a man disadvantage across 74 games for the Detroit Red Wings over the past two years, which is almost 100 points lower than his .949 mark this season.
That tracks with the fact his overall .919 SV% for the Sabres is well above his career mark (.903).
Second, Buffalo isn't doing anything special in terms of chance suppression on the penalty kill. Here's where they rank in the NHL in some key categories in that regard, per NST:
- Expected goals against per 60 minutes: 9.35 (20th)
- Scoring chances against per 60 minutes: 67.9 (24th)
- High-danger chances against per 60 minutes: 28.0 (21st)
Those underlying numbers simply don't sync with the idea the Blue and Gold own the best penalty kill in the league.
Finally, Luukkonen figures to receive a decent amount of starts moving forward after recovering from a pair of preseason injuries. His save percentage on the penalty kill for Buffalo over the past three years matches that of Lyon for Detroit (.853).
So history suggests the Sabres should expect closer to an .853 SV% in those situations moving forward compared to the .952 they've received so far. That's a significant difference.
That's a lot of information. What does it all mean?
Well, Buffalo needs to start playing a more effective 5-on-5 game to offset what'll likely be a higher success rate for opposing power plays, and it's defensive structure on the PK must also improve given the lackluster analytic metrics.
The Sabres are playing a better brand of hockey early this season than they have in recent years, but there's still a lot of work left to do before becoming a true playoff threat in the Eastern Conference.