Rasmus Dahlin entered the 2025-26 season with a legitimate case as one of the five best defensemen in the NHL. The Norris Trophy candidate hasn't provided anywhere near that level of play across the Buffalo Sabres' first nine games, though.
Dahlin ranks last among eight Sabres blueliners in expected goals for percentage (xGF%) in 5-on-5 situations at 44.7%, according to Natural Stat Trick. He rates 124th in that category among 161 NHL defenders who've play at least 100 minutes, per NST. (Yes, the sample size is still relatively small.)
The 2018 No. 1 overall pick does have seven assists but four of those have come on the power play, and he's yet to score his first goal of the campaign. He simply isn't driving play at his usual elite rate, which is an issue for Buffalo amid a modest 4-4-1 start.
While plus-minus is far from a perfect stat, his minus-8 rating does further showcase his lack of effectiveness in even-strength ice time early in the season.
History suggests Dahlin will eventually escape the slump in a major way, but his inability to find another gear with the 10-game mark on the horizon is starting to raise eyebrows.
That leads us into the next installment of our Sabres debates series, which analyses key questions facing the Buffalo organization throughout the season.
Should the Buffalo Sabres be worried about Rasmus Dahlin's performance?
The case for Dahlin returning to form
Dahlin's track record speaks for itself. He's recorded 367 points (83 goals and 284 assists) in 518 career appearances despite playing for a franchise that hasn't reached the playoffs once in his career. He's tallied 207 points in 241 games since the start of the 2022-23 season.
The 25-year-old Sweden native finished third in Calder Trophy voting in his rookie campaign and has cracked the top 10 of Norris Trophy voting twice in the past three years. He's also earned three All-Star Game selections over the last four seasons.
A player doesn't earn those type of accolades at his age without being one of the NHL's best.
Dahlin has also remained a solid secondary producer despite the otherwise mediocre performance. Along with the seven helpers, he's fired off 23 shots on goal, delivered nine hits and blocked eight shots, so he's still involved to some degree.
In the bigger picture, the left-shot defender endured just one "bad" season in his career. That came during the COVID-shortened 2020-21 campaign where he finished with just 23 points in 53 games as the Sabres finished with by far the worst record in the league.
So, there really isn't anything in Dahlin's history that suggests his underwhelming numbers are sustainable over the long haul, especially on a more competitive Buffalo squad.
The case against Dahlin returning to form
A pessimist would point out that Dahlin's underlying numbers are just disappointing, they're borderline terrible.
Along with the aforementioned 44.7% expected goals share, the Sabres have been outscored 11-5 when the superstar defenseman has been on the ice at 5-on-5. Buffalo has also generated just 37.3% of the high-danger chances in his 5-on-5 minutes, per NST.
Some have theorized playing next to an offense-only partner like Bowen Byram has played a key role in the drop off. Yet, that pair has actually produced a positive expected goals share (50.7%, per NST), while Dahlin has struggled with everyone else, especially Mattias Samuelsson.
In turn, this isn't a situation where the analytic metrics suggest the 6-foot-3 blueliner is merely experiencing some bad luck. He's truly not playing up to his usual standard, and the baseline numbers would look far worse if not for some solid power-play quarterbacking.
It'll be virtually impossible for the Sabres to replace Dahlin's high-end play-driving ability if he doesn't find a rhythm in the coming weeks.
Verdict: Minor blip for Dahlin
Quite simply, Dahlin is too good of a player with too long of a top-tier NHL track record to believe he'll struggle for an entire 82-game schedule.
Buffalo should get more stability within its defense pairs once Michael Kesselring returns from injury, which will give the dynamic Swede a more stable environment, and there have still been flashes of his incredible playmaking from time to time early in the season.
The Sabres as a whole are also showing a lot of promising signs. They removed a lot of the weak links from their lineup last season, and it's created a more balanced approach on a game-to-game basis. That should help in the No. 1 defenseman's quest to find his game.
It's actually impressive the Blue and Gold have compiled a 4-4-1 record given the middling production from Dahlin, Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch so far, though Thompson and Tuch did start to turn a corner in the recent home-and-home set with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Dahlin should be the next Sabres player to get back on track. It'll be one of the biggest surprises of the NHL season if he doesn't.