The Buffalo Sabres have skyrocketed up the NHL standings with an extraordinary, and completely unexpected, 31-6-2 record over 39 games since early December, but many analysts around the league have remained hesitant to jump on the bandwagon.
There are a few legitimate reasons for that reluctance — the Sabres' lack of sustained success across their 14-year playoff drought and the club's underlying numbers suggesting it's a slightly above-average hockey team rather than a dominant Stanley Cup contender — but it appears the tide is beginning to turn.
Austin Nivison of CBS Sports ranked Buffalo as the NHL's No. 2 overall team in his newest NHL power rankings released Wednesday. Only the Dallas Stars reside above the Blue and Gold.
"Buffalo is a notch or two below the true contenders, but they're still very good. It helps that they're also fun to watch and one of the league's best stories," Nivison wrote.
It's been a long time since the Sabres were being considered for the top spot in power rankings.
Their high placement comes on the heels of a 2-0 road victory over former franchise cornerstone Jack Eichel and the Vegas Golden Knights on Tuesday night. The two points moved Buffalo into a tie with the Carolina Hurricanes for first place in the Eastern Conference, though the Canes have a game in hand.
It's a tremendous feat at baseline, but even more so when you consider head coach Lindy Ruff's group was four points clear at the bottom of the East on the morning of Dec. 9.
That's a turnaround for the ages, and now the sky is the limit for the Sabres.
Are the Buffalo Sabres a legitimate NHL Stanley Cup threat or just a cool story?
Last month, the Sabres entered the league's three-week break for the 2026 Winter Olympics on a low note. They'd lost three of their previous four games and started to show some concerning defensive cracks, which raised questions about whether the upstart club had hit a wall.
Apparently not.
Buffalo has posted an NHL-best 10-1-0 record since the Olympic break and it's outscored opponents 42-24 over that span. The team's goaltending duo of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Alex Lyon has remained the backbone of success, posting a combined .919 save percentage in those 11 games.
The analytics suggest the Sabres are becoming a better team, too. As mentioned, the underlying metrics weren't overly impressive for the Blue and Gold for most of the campaign, even after they started winning games at a high rate.
Buffalo is 10th in the NHL in expected goals rate (53.0%), seventh in shot share (53.4%) and 13th in scoring chance share (51.2%) since play resumed, per Natural Stat Trick.
Those are strong numbers and, when paired with high-end play between the pipes, it's absolutely time to start taking Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson and Co. seriously as a Cup hopeful.
The Sabres still have a few areas they can clean up before the postseason, of course.
Offensively, the club's power play remains the biggest source of frustration. The unit ranks a modest 17th with a 20.5% conversion rate on the season, but there are far too many disjointed PP opportunities when the Blue and Gold don't generate a single good look.
Defensively, Ruff and his staff have to figure out the best options for the third pair. Dahlin and Mattias Samuelsson are fueling each other's success on the top pair, while Bowen Byram and Owen Power are one of the league's most naturally gifted second tandems.
Buffalo should have five options for the last two spots if everyone is healthy come playoff time: Michael Kesselring, Logan Stanley, Conor Timmins, Zach Metsa and Luke Schenn.
Timmins, who's nearing a return from a broken leg suffered in December, was a key contributor on the penalty kill before his injury. Now he'll be in a race against time to show he's fully recovered and back in top form before Game 1 of the first round.
As it stands, Metsa probably warrants a spot based purely on performance, but the Sabres have shown a preference for more of a physical edge on the bottom pair. That could lead to a Stanley-Timmins pairing, though the lack of puck-moving ability would be a concern.
Kesselring is the wild card. He's dealt with a high-ankle sprain for pretty much his entire first season in Buffalo, and it's prevented him from building off his strong 2024-25 campaign with the Utah Mammoth. He belongs on the ice if he's playing his best hockey.
Ruff has another month to evaluate his options on the back end, while at the same time trying to decide whether UPL or Lyon should be in net for the postseason opener.
All told, the Sabres may not be able to match the amount of truly high-end talent featured on the rosters of other top-tier Cup contenders, but their overall depth can match up with anybody.
That's why they belong in the NHL championship conversation for the first time in decades.