NHL analyst calls Sabres a 'wagon,' says Buffalo is 'very likely' to make playoffs

The Buffalo Sabres' playoff chances, which were well below 50% when they started a six-game road trip last month, have soared thanks to a hot streak that featured a 10-game winning streak.

Patrick Bacon of Top Down Hockey described the Sabres as a "wagon" and provided his model's updated postseason odds, which show Buffalo at 74% to reach the NHL's Stanley Cup Playoffs:

It's a remarkable turnaround that essentially came out of nowhere. The Blue and Gold had lost three straight and five of seven before flipping the switch to become one of the league's hottest teams.

The Sabres' playoff push in the ridiculously crowded Eastern Conference could soon receive a boost, too. The rumor mill suggests general manager Jarmo Kekalainen is working the phones on the trade market, with the New York Rangers' Artemi Panarin among the potential targets.

Buffalo hasn't skated in a postseason game since April 2011.

What the underlying numbers say about the Buffalo Sabres' recent climb up the NHL standings

The Sabres' hot streak began with a 3-2 overtime victory over Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers on Dec. 9. One month later, they sit in the second wild-card spot in the East and they're five points behind the Tampa Bay Lightning for third place in the Atlantic Division.

Here's a look at where Buffalo ranks in some key categories over that stretch, per Natural Stat Trick:

Offense (5-on-5; per 60 minutes)

• Goals scored: 2.72 (12th)

• Expected goals scored: 2.42 (28th)

• Scoring chances: 23.1 (31st)

• High-danger chances: 9.8 (29th)

Defense (5-on-5; per 60 minutes)

• Goals allowed: 1.87 (6th)

• Expected goals allowed: 2.73 (19th)

• Scoring chances allowed: 27.5 (17th)

• High-danger chances allowed: 10.5 (8th)

Special Teams (Per 60 Minutes)

• Power play goals scored: 5.87 (23rd)

• Power play expected goals: 8.66 (18th)

• Penalty kill goals allowed: 5.40 (4th)

• Penalty kill expected goals allowed: 10.53 (24th)

Those numbers paint a pretty clear picture. They suggest the Sabres' winning ways have been fueled by strong finishing offensively, which isn't out of the ordinary based on recent seasons, and tremendous goaltending, especially on the penalty kill.

It's probably not a coincidence the improved play between the pipes came as the three-goalie rotation, which plagued Buffalo throughout the season's early stages, was put on a temporary hold as Colten Ellis and Alex Lyon were sidelined by injuries at separate times.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen led the charge (.933 save percentage in his last five starts) and Ellis played a strong game in his return Thursday night, stopping 30 of 32 New York Rangers shots in a 5-2 win.

So, Sabres general manager Jarmo Kekalainen, who previously admitted carrying three goalies on the active roster isn't ideal for any of the netminders involved, is going to face any incredibly difficult decision once Lyon is cleared to return, which is expected in about a week.

Lyon has been the club's most dependable goalie throughout the season, UPL is in peak form at the moment and Ellis, who was claimed off waivers from the St. Louis Blues in October, is a 25-year-old goaltender with a lot of upside.

Moving any of them would come with some level of risk, and Buffalo also has prized prospect Devon Levi waiting for an NHL opportunity while playing for the AHL's Rochester Americans, so there's quite a logjam without an easy solution.

Although it wouldn't be a surprise to see Kekalainen keep all three goalies for the time being, he'll need an exit strategy if the goaltending performance drops off again while trying to spread out the starts and playing time between the trio.

Meanwhile, the Sabres' new GM should be actively pursuing upgrades via trade to fill in a few of the roster's remaining holes.

The two most notable ones are a top-six, offensive-minded forward who could take some scoring pressure off Tage Thompson and help boost the team's enigmatic power play, as well as a depth defenseman to help overcome injuries to Michael Kesselring and Conor Timmins.

It wouldn't be a surprise if Kekalainen, who made several bold moves while previously leading the Columbus Blue Jackets, makes a deal before rosters freeze for the 2026 Winter Olympics in February.

All told, the Sabres are pacing toward a long-awaited playoff appearance and the numbers suggest they're far more competitive than past years, albeit still not on the same level as the NHL's elite.

It'll be fascinating to see what the next three months bring as a buzz builds about hockey in Western New York for the first time in awhile.