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NHL analyst projects Buffalo Sabres are having league's worst offseason

The Sabres put together a long-awaited breakthrough campaign in 2025-26 to earn the franchise's first playoff berth since 2011. Will Buffalo take a step back next season?
Former Buffalo Sabres winger Alex Tuch, who was traded to the Washington Capitals
Former Buffalo Sabres winger Alex Tuch, who was traded to the Washington Capitals | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

No NHL team has lost more value from its roster during the 2026 NHL offseason than the Buffalo Sabres, who traded away winger Alex Tuch and defenseman Bowen Byram.

That estimate comes from the analytic model of The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn, who ranked the Sabres' summer (at least so far) as the league's worst based on his Net Rating metric, though he admitted Buffalo's potential for internal growth could offset the high-profile losses.

"The Sabres will probably be worse next season, but it may not be as much as this estimation indicates," Luszczyszyn wrote Thursday. "Even without Tuch and Byram, Buffalo is still a strong playoff bet for next season."

It's understandable why Sabres general manager Jarmo Kekalainen traded away Tuch and Byram.

Tuch was set to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1 and Buffalo's front office wasn't comfortable giving a 30-year-old player the eight-year, $84 million contract extension he received as part of a sign-and-trade deal with the Washington Capitals.

Kekalainen initially expressed interest in an extension with Byram, but the blueliner wanted a lucrative contract and a chance to serve as a top-pair defenseman and No. 1 power-play quarterback. He'll get those opportunities with the Chicago Blackhawks, who gave up a six-year, $75 million deal.

Are the Sabres in a better spot financially since they didn't commit $23 million a year to those two players for the long haul? Yes. Does their departure put Buffalo in a situation where it could feel those on-ice losses in the short term? Also yes.

Meanwhile, the Blue and Gold haven't made any major additions yet this offseason despite ongoing rumors about a possible trade for Winnipeg Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck or signing Buffalo native Patrick Kane in free agency.

The arrivals so far have been of the more modest variety: forward Conor Sheary and a trio of defensemen, Olen Zellweger, Louis Crevier and Dennis Gilbert.

Buffalo did acquire the No. 4 overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, which it used to select defensive prospect Daxon Rudolph, as part of the Byram trade, but the high-upside defender is still a year or two from reaching NHL readiness.

So, while there's still time to make some moves, questions about whether the Sabres have taken a step back this summer are legitimate.

Buffalo Sabres are making a massive bet on in-house improvement for 2026-27

Kekalainen hasn't operated like a GM who's overly concerned about the Sabres' losses. He could have made a rash trade before the draft — Winnipeg wanted the No. 4 pick without giving up the No. 8 selection in a Hellebuyck deal — but he's continued to wait out the Jets.

If a blockbuster trade doesn't materialize, he appears content to move forward with the team's current roster.

Although there's always risk associated with placing too much of a burden on young players, a reality the Sabres organization learned a few different times during its 14-year playoff drought, the Blue and Gold have an impressive cache of rising stars.

Zach Benson, Josh Doan, Jack Quinn, Noah Ostlund, Jiri Kulich and Konsta Helenius are all under 25 years old and will be aiming to take on bigger roles in 2026-27.

Kulich missed a vast majority of last season with a blood clot, but he's expected to resume his hockey career in the fall. Helenius was called on during the team's playoff run and quickly emerged as one of its most dangerous offensive threats in Round 2 against the Montreal Canadiens.

Those two players should be full-time players for Buffalo next season, joining the likes of Benson, Doan, Quinn and Ostlund in a crowded forward group headlined by Tage Thompson. The roster features at least 15 players set to compete for 13 roster spots.

That's why, despite losing a player in Tuch who had a significant two-way impact, the Sabres have a chance to fill the void internally. Adding Kane could help soften the scoring blow if Kekalainen decides to go that route.

Meanwhile, Buffalo's top-four defense group was the engine behind its success last season, so losing Byram creates a worrisome void.

The Sabres are attempting to replace him in the aggregate. Zellweger will take over much of his offensive responsibilities, while Crevier and Conor Timmins take on the defensive burden. The front office is hoping 2021 No. 1 overall pick Owen Power still has another gear to find, too.

Ultimately, from a pure "talent in, talent out" perspective, it's unsurprising to see the club's offseason start to receive a little bit of criticism, both inside and outside of Western New York.

The ship isn't sinking, however, and Kekalainen is doing well to remain calm under pressure.

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