The Buffalo Sabres knew the Alex Tuch situation would become more complicated if a contract extension wasn't in place before the start of the regular season. Now, as the March trade deadline inches closer by the day, those fears have become reality.
Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic issued a warning to the Sabres front office on Thursday as the numbers related to a potential agreement with Tuch continue to skyrocket.
"Tuch is a tremendous player who is off to a great start," Luszczyszyn wrote. "He has a history of scoring goals and driving play — a guy any team would be lucky to have. But he's not elite."
He added: "Any deal paying Tuch over the rumored $10 million ask would be immediately onerous."
The $10 million figure was reported by The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun in September. Last week, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet the request from Tuch's camp may be closer to $11.5 million.
Yet, as eye-popping as those numbers are, the Sabres also understand the reality that trying to replace the 29-year-old winger would be difficult for a franchise that hasn't had a ton of success finding high-end talent via trade or free agency during a 14-year playoff drought.
The Buffalo Sabres must trade Alex Tuch if a contract extension isn't in place before the NHL trade deadline
So, what is Tuch worth? Luszczyszyn's analytics model estimates the Team USA Olympic roster hopeful with a $7.6 million market value, and projects his next contract at an $8.5 million average annual value (AAV).
Those numbers feel like a far more realistic baseline than the rumored $11.5 million asking price.
Regardless, the Sabres must juggle the potential of vastly overpaying Tuch with the opposite side of the coin: They can't afford to lose him to unrestricted free agency at season's end without getting anything in return. That's the worst-case scenario from the team's perspective.
That's why the trade deadline in March must be written in stone for Buffalo. If a new deal isn't in place, general manager Kevyn Adams must trade Tuch to the highest bidder.
It's an unfortunate reality for the Sabres, and their fans, but one of the NHL's most effective two-way players would have a lot of trade value, even as a potential rental. The return would increase if the veteran forward could work out an extension agreement with a new team before the deal.
To Tuch's credit, he's started to play well despite the noise around him after a rough start to the 2025-26 campaign. He's recorded 12 points (five goals and seven assists) in 13 games while taking on a lead role for the team's top-ranked penalty kill.
In the end, there isn't a perfect solution for the Sabres. They either risk overpaying Tuch by a significant amount, trade away one of the organization's most popular players or watch an extremely valuable player leave Western New York without getting any assets back to soften the blow.
It puts a lot of pressure on Adams to navigate the situation well in the months ahead.