The Buffalo Sabres are going to need a strong season from goalies Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Alex Lyon if they're finally going to end their 14-year playoff drought. At least one NHL analyst isn't confident they're going to get it.
Joe Yerdon of Bleacher Report released his 2025-26 NHL goalie tandem rankings on Wednesday. The Sabres checked in at No. 26 of 32 teams with the return of UPL and signing Lyon to replace James Reimer in the backup role.
"Coach Lindy Ruff rides the hot hand hard (case in point, late last season with Reimer), but being hot and earning trust goes a long way," Yerdon wrote. "This could be a good group in goal, but there's a lot that's seemingly up in the air yet."
Ultimately, if Buffalo receives the league's seventh-worst goaltending as the B/R ranking suggests, it's hard to imagine a scenario where they still manage to reach the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Luukkonen's forgettable 2024-25 season
The 26-year-old Finnish netminder appeared on an upward trajectory when he posted a 2.57 goals against average and a .910 save percentage in 2023-24. Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams rewarded that success with a five-year, $23.75 million contract extension.
Unfortunately for the Sabres, UPL's play dropped off considerably last season.
His GAA jumped to 3.20 and his .887 SV% was the seventh-lowest mark among qualified NHL goaltenders. His underlying metrics were equally concerning as he ranked 61st of 72 goalies who played at least 600 minutes in goals saved above average per 60 (GSAA/60), per Natural Stat Trick.
In turn, it's virtually impossible to know which version of UPL will show up this season. That uncertainty is an issue for a club that already doesn't have much margin for error in what will likely be a hotly contested Eastern Conference playoff race.
If Luukkonen struggles as much as he did in 2024-25 once again, it'll be fair for the Sabres to begin considering alternatives for their long-term answer in net.
Lyon's history as an NHL backup
Lyon is entering his ninth NHL season. He previously made stops with the Philadelphia Flyers, Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers and Detroit Red Wings.
The 32-year-old Minnesota native's overall numbers are mediocre. He's compiled a 2.99 GAA and .902 SV% in 113 career appearances. His .896 SV% last year marked the first time he finished below .900 in a campaign where he played at least 10 games.
His GSAA/60 over the past two seasons, during which he played 74 contests for the Wings, ranked 39th out of 72 goalies (min. 1,200 minutes), per NST.
In other words, Lyon is a decent backup but expectations should be modest if he's thrust into a starting role because UPL is struggling again.
What's in the Sabres' farm system?
Devon Levi, one of Buffalo's top prospects, will serve as the starter for the AHL's Rochester Americans to open the season (barring an injury to UPL or Lyon). A full season with the Amerks is the best thing for his development at this stage.
The former Northeastern University standout has enjoyed plenty of AHL success (.922 SV% in 68 games) but it hasn't translated to the NHL yet (.894 SV% in 39 games). After initially trying to rush him into a full-time role with the big club, a more measured approach in the minors is the way to go.
Behind Levi, the Sabres have two options who will compete for the AHL backup role: Topias Leinonen and Scott Ratzlaff. The goalie who doesn't win that competition will probably open the year as the starter for the ECHL's Jacksonville Icemen.
All told, by next summer Buffalo should have a far clearer picture about its future between the pipes.