The Buffalo Sabres have put themselves in prime position to earn their first trip to the Stanley Cup Playoffs since 2011, but some cracks started to appear before the NHL's break for the 2026 Winter Olympics and they can't be ignored.
Buffalo lost three of its final four games before the break as key injuries mounted. Center Josh Norris was among those sidelined, and his extensive injury history creates a situation where the organization simply can't pin its offensive hopes on him staying healthy.
Enter Robert Thomas. The St. Louis Blues pivot is among the top players available ahead of this season's NHL trade deadline and Sabres general manager Jarmo Kekalainen has the pieces to get a deal done if he wants to take a bold swing, but it'll be costly.
Nick Kypreos of Sportsnet recently reported the Blues GM Doug Armstrong is expecting a king's ransom if he moves the 26-year-old center.
"The price is astronomical, in the vicinity of something equivalent to three top-15 first-round picks. He's looking for cache in prospects and picks," Kypreos wrote.
At minimum, it's a highly intriguing option Kekalainen must explore after the NHL roster freeze is lifted at day's end on Feb. 22.
Sabres' offer for Robert Thomas with Josh Norris
Buffalo's easiest route to fitting Thomas ($8.125 million AAV) under the salary cap is including Norris ($7.95 million AAV) in the trade. His injury issues have sapped his value, but he's still just 26 years old and has been highly productive (17 points in 19 games) when healthy this season.
Coincidentally, Thomas was also sidelined before the break to undergo surgery on a lower-body injury, but he's expected to return when NHL play resumes. The 2024 All-Star has posted 342 points (96 goals and 246 assists) across 339 appearances since the start of the 2021-22 season.
Norris' presence in the offer likely wouldn't significantly reduce St. Louis' baseline asking price. It would mostly be a concession that acquiring him as a vital piece of the roster construction was a mistake by former GM Kevyn Adams.
With that in mind, the blockbuster deal could look something like this:
- To Buffalo: Robert Thomas and a 2026 seventh-round draft pick
- To St. Louis: Josh Norris, Noah Ostlund, Isak Rosen, a 2026 first-round draft pick and a 2026 fourth-round draft pick
Is that a high price to pay? Absolutely, especially because in a vacuum the on-ice production of Thomas and Norris isn't worlds apart.
That said, the Sabres are essentially paying a premium to make it a "clean" swap. They don't have to jump through any extensive hoops to make the financial side work for this season and beyond, and they're getting a high-upside player who's under contract through 2030-31.
It still comes with obvious risk because Norris is an excellent producer when healthy, Ostlund is putting together a strong rookie season to establish himself as a reliable middle-six contributor and Rosen has flashed strong offensive upside throughout his AHL tenure.
Add in this year's first-round selection and the Blues are getting their entire "three top-15 assets" demand along with a possible long-term second-line center in Norris if his injury fortunes change.
Yet, through Buffalo's lens, they're getting a player who's topped 75 points three times and they have another prized prospect in Konsta Helenius who can fill the spot vacated by Ostlund.
They also don't have a guaranteed NHL spot for Rosen moving forward and their first-round pick could drop into the 20s if they can win a postseason round, something that becomes more likely with Thomas.
It's an expensive trade, but still one that could pay substantial dividends for Buffalo.
Buffalo's offer for Robert Thomas without Josh Norris
If the Blues aren't interested in taking on Norris, who's under contract through 2029-30, the situation becomes tougher to navigate for the Sabres.
They'd have to clear out some cap space, likely starting with placing Jordan Greenway on long-term injured reserve and potentially trading Jack Quinn, and the issues wouldn't stop there.
Looking toward next season, Buffalo probably wouldn't have an avenue to keep Alex Tuch unless it moved multiple roster players to create financial flexibility. It'd probably have to move Owen Power or Bowen Byram, and goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen may also no longer fit in the equation.
The Sabres could also try to move Norris in the offseason and, while he'll probably have suitors, it's unlikely they'd be able to do a complete salary dump given his injury-prone status.
In short, it'd create a mess that would require five or six months to fully clean up.
Nevertheless, it's still something Kekalainen should contemplate because Thomas would represent another long-term piece for Buffalo's core.
The main pieces of the trade offer would likely be similar:
- To Buffalo: Robert Thomas and a 2026 seventh-round draft pick
- To St. Louis: Noah Ostlund, Isak Rosen, Adam Kleber, Colten Ellis or Devon Levi, a 2026 first-round draft pick and a 2026 sixth-round draft pick
St. Louis gets four top-50 assets from this proposal. Ostlund (16th overall in 2022), Rosen (14th overall in 2021) and Kleber (42nd overall in 2024) along with Buffalo's first-rounder. They also get a goalie prospect. Ellis started his career in St. Louis' system.
The Blues don't get as much raw talent in this offer, but they instantly obtain a lot more financial freedom for their impending rebuild without taking on Norris.
Of course, all of the conversation is moot if Thomas, who owns a full no-trade clause, isn't interested in heading up to Western New York.
Kekalainen may ultimately decide on a more conservative route at the deadline. A couple more modest moves, perhaps a few rentals in the form of an offensive-minded winger and physical defensive depth, to boost this season's chances without shaking up the future outlook.
At some point difficult decisions are going to arrive, however, especially if the Sabres want to find a way to keep Tuch at his desired salary (~$10.5 million annually). So, whether it's at the deadline or over the summer, a few big moves are surely coming from Buffalo's front office.
Taking a home-run swing to land Thomas, even if the final price is a little higher than estimated above, feels like it's worth a try for the Blue and Gold.