The Buffalo Sabres secured a big win on Monday night against the Tampa Bay Lightning that moves them back in a tie for first place in the Atlantic Division at 102. It was a game they needed as they were in a slump after winning only two of their prior seven games.
With four games left in the regular season, the playoff picture is starting to come into focus. Even with a limited number of games left, the Sabres have a wide range of outcomes for their first trip back to the playoffs after 14 seasons.
Realistic best-case scenario for the Buffalo Sabres
With the win over the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Eastern Conference is still within reach as they are only two points back of the Carolina Hurricanes. The Hurricanes do have a game in hand so it will be tough and require the Sabres to probably win three of their final four games but the Hurricanes have a tougher schedule to close out the regular season.
Over the final five games, the Hurricanes are playing teams either currently in the playoffs (Bruins, Mammoth, Flyers) or fighting for a playoff spot (Islanders) in four of those games. The good news for the Sabres is that if they are tied with the Hurricanes in points, they do hold the tiebreaker for Regulation Wins currently with a three-win advantage.
The reason that winning the Eastern Conference is the ideal scenario for the Buffalo Sabres is that it not only guarantees home-ice advantage through the playoffs but also helps avoid the Boston Bruins in the first round. Right now, the Bruins seem to be locked in as the first wild card, and the Sabres have struggled against them this season, going 1-1-2.
Meanwhile, three teams fighting for that final wild card spot include the New York Islanders, Philadelphia Flyers, and Ottawa Senators. The Sabres have a combined record of 7-2 against those three teams this season.
The win over the Lightning on Monday night has kept the ability to win the Eastern Conference within reach but the Buffalo Sabres are going to need some help to do it.
Realistic worst-case scenario for the Buffalo Sabres
For the Buffalo Sabres, the worst-case scenario is they struggle down the stretch while the Lightning and Canadiens win a majority of their games. The farthest the Sabres are likely to drop would be third in the Atlantic Division but it would create a much tougher path in the playoffs if they hope to advance.
If the Sabres finish in third, it means they would face either the Tampa Bay Lightning or Montreal Canadiens in the first round and have to start the series on the road for the first two games. If they were to win that series, they would once again begin a series on the road and likely face the team they didn't beat between the Canadiens and Lightning.
The race for the Atlantic Division is rather tight right now and the Sabres are tied with the Lightning and only two points ahead of the Canadiens. If the Sabres lose three of their next four games, or even split their final two, they could end up in this scenario, creating a much more challenging path through the playoffs.