Just hours removed from the Buffalo Sabres' exit from the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the focus immediately shifted to the future of the roster.
When Tage Thompson was asked whether Alex Tuch could test free agency, he said "I have no idea" and that he'd "love to have [Tuch] back."
The team's general manager, Jarmo Kekalainen, previously concured with those thoughts, ensuring that the players and management see eye to eye regarding Tuch's reputation within the team.
But free agency isn't just a game of sentiment and passion, it's one where players want to get the best return for their recent performance, be it with their current team or another. It's also one where teams use the cap space they have to make the moves that will both improve their roster and that will guarantee they remain salary cap-compliant.
There's two sides to the Buffalo Sabres - Alex Tuch contract story
On one hand, you have the Tuch camp who believe that he's been a valuable contributor to the team's success, a capable point-scorer, and someone who cares about playing in Western New York. They could point to the fact that he's recorded at least 60 points in four of the last five campaigns and that he's been able to replicate his pre-COVID form. He's also one of the top impending UFAs available, which could allow him to command a double-digit AAV on the open market.
On the other hand, you have the front office saying, "We see the regular season performance, but what happened against Montreal? Where was the 66-point scorer from the regular season in Game 7?"
Fans might think it's unfair to assess Tuch's future based on one bad series, but Leaf fans have been clamoring for the overpaid Core Four (or whatever its new form is to take) to be broken up failed campaign after failed campaign. In saying that, I'm willing to exempt former captain John Tavares given that he took a hometown discount on his latest deal to give the Leafs room to improve elsewhere.
But this isn't the first time Tuch has disappeared to some capacity in the playoffs; sure, he scores points 60% of the time in the playoffs but that in itself is, at best, streaky. And when Tuch struggles to score, his teams tend to fade with him, though it seems this playoff run was an exception.
Buffalo's nowhere close to The Leaf Syndrome just yet, but could they avoid it altogether by letting Tuch walk?
I'm not suggesting that the Sabres don't negotiate and they ship him to free agency themselves.
I'm saying that any negotiation surrounding Tuch's future in Buffalo needs to consider both sides of the argument. While projections say otherwise, with some estimating his total contract could be worth around $75 million, the Sabres might not want to fork that money hand over fist, especially for a longer commitment. That is especially true when considering that Buffalo still needs to secure Zach Benson for the long run; the 13th overall pick from the 2023 draft recorded three goals and three assists over the course of the seven-game series against Montreal while also recording 43 points in 65 games this past regular season.
If Tuch is willing to take a hometown discount that sees him get paid $55 to $60 million over the course of seven or eight years, then all the better for both sides.
It's the higher projections that should set the red flags off in negotiations.
Tuch is capable of performing in the playoffs, but he doesn't necessarily have the consistency that other playoff performers have, as the Canadiens series illustrated.
The Sabres might therefore be smart to invest elsewhere, but a hometown discount gives the front office the chance to lock Benson up with the projected $13 million in cap space the team will have at the start of the offseason, and they have other internal free agents to consider, as well.
If a hometown discount gets rejected? Don't bother.
Time is Tuch-ing down on these negotiations. We'll know very soon if Tuch wants to pull a Tavares, but Buffalo is better off preparing for a reality where his tenure with the organization comes to an end.
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