The Buffalo Sabres have showcased fleeting moments of promise during their first 20 games of the 2025-26 NHL season, but the reality remains much the same from the past 14 years of misery as they occupy last place in the Eastern Conference with a 7-9-4 record.
Sabres fans entered the campaign with a dose of renewed optimism as projections from the analytics community put the Blue and Gold firmly in the playoff conversation. Alas, it's not even Thanksgiving and the team's chances of ending its postseason drought are already fading.
Could Buffalo turn things around and start climbing the East standings? Of course, but it's going to require completely eliminating terrible performances like it delivered in Wednesday night's loss to the Calgary Flames from the equation for the remaining 62 games.
History suggests that'll be a tough hurdle to jump for the inconsistent Sabres, though.
Breaking down the most important topics from the first quarter of the Buffalo Sabres' season
Sabres' injury barrage can't be ignored
Injuries shouldn't be used an excuse by the players themselves. It's a losing mindset you won't see from the league's true Stanley Cup contenders. That said, fair analysis of the Sabres' up-and-down start to the season must include the reality of key players being injured.
Buffalo ranks third in the NHL in cap hit of injured players (CHIP), which combines games missed and a player's contract to estimate how much value a team has lost, per NHL Injury Viz. Only the Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers are higher on the list.
Just eight members of the Sabres roster have played all 20 games, and one of them is Peyton Krebs, who remains one of the league's least productive forwards. Any team would struggle to overcome the endless stream of injuries, but especially one with limited depth like the Blue and Gold.
If Buffalo is going reverse its downward trajectory, it's going to need significantly improved injury luck moving forward. A fully healthy Sabres squad would be far more competitive on a night-to-night basis.
Goaltending logjam must be solved
Carrying three goalies rarely works in the NHL because there isn't enough of a workload, both in terms of practice reps and game starts, to keep all of the netminders in peak form. The Sabres have been finding that out the hard way in recent weeks.
Alex Lyon started the season on fire, but his performance has dipped as he's been forced to cede starts since Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen returned from injury.
Colten Ellis, a waiver claim from the St. Louis Blues just before the regular season. recently assumed the starting role for a three-game stretch. He's done enough to warrant a longer look, but he was shelled in the lopsided loss to the Flames.
Trading UPL is the most obvious next step for the Sabres given his continued poor form, which dates back to last season, but trying to find a taker may prove difficult since he's under contract through 2028-29. That's a long commitment for a struggling goaltender.
Add in prospect Devon Levi, who's also become the focus of trade rumors, and the entire situation is simply a mess. General manager Kevyn Adams must find a way to begin clearing out the crowded depth chart as soon as possible.
Offseason trade with Utah Mammoth is a win-win
A league-wide obsession with attempting to declare which side got the better side of every trade, often before any player involved has even taken the ice, creates an environment where legitimate win-win deals are often overlooked.
JJ Peterka wasn't interested in signing a long-term contract extension with the Sabres, which forced the Adams to seek out trade options. He settled on an offer from the Mammoth that included forward Josh Doan and defenseman Michael Kesselring.
Yes, Peterka has played well in Utah. He's recorded 15 points (eight points and seven assists) in 20 games, providing exactly the type of offensive boost the Mammoth were desperately seeking.
Doan has also rapidly become a fan favorite in Buffalo, though. He's a hardworking, high-IQ player who's proven willing to battle opponents for space in the most dangerous areas of the ice en route to five goals and seven assists in 20 contests.
Kesselring was also starting to round into form after recovering from a preseason ailment when he suffered another injury. He still projects as a long-term partner for Owen Power if the Sabres defense can stay healthy for an extended stretch.
Both teams should be happy with their return in a trade that made sense for each side.
Organizational overhaul may be required
If the Sabres can't make a surge up the standings and ultimately miss the playoffs for the 15th straight year, all eyes will shift to team owner Terry Pegula.
Pegula has been far too patient with Adams and his decision to bring back head coach Lindy Ruff for a second stint behind the Buffalo bench lacked vision. He's often traveled the path of least resistance since buying the franchise in 2011, which helps explain the organization's lack of success.
Another year watching the Stanley Cup Playoffs from afar should result in a complete rebuild of both the Sabres front office and coaching staff.
Buffalo has been linked to former Toronto Maple Leafs president Brendan Shanahan. Whether it's Shanahan or another candidate, Pegula needs to look outside the organization for someone capable of taking the team in a completely new direction.
Another year (or more) of the Adams-Ruff tandem would be unacceptable if the postseason remains out of reach in 2026.
Buffalo needs to trade Alex Tuch
Unfortunately, two things are becoming crystal clear: Tuch has no interest in giving the Sabres a "hometown discount" and the Buffalo front office isn't willing to give the 29-year-old winger the double-digit AAV he's seeking in a new contract.
Barring a sudden change of heart by either side, a trade is the only path forward for the Blue and Gold.
The Sabres can't afford to let Tuch enter free agency at season's end without getting anything in return. He carries too much value and the team isn't an attractive enough destination for free agents to believe it could potentially replace him that way.
Adams should make it clear he's going to send the Team USA Olympic roster candidate to the highest bidder ahead of the trade deadline in March, and he should also allow Tuch's camp to speak with other teams about a possible extension, which would improve the potential return package.
It's not the ideal outcome for the Sabres, who will sorely miss the forward's two-way contributions, but they really don't have much other choice with unrestricted free agency looming.