Twenty games into the season, it's safe to say that the magic of the Buffalo Sabres 2025-26 season hasn't carried over into 2026-27. Sure, it's still early, but the Sabres will need another miracle-type run to get back on top, and unlike last year, those pieces just aren't there to sustain them.
There's a lot to be said about things that aren't going well. Compared to the rest of the Atlantic Division, they simply aren't scoring enough goals. The Sabres are tied with the Detroit Red Wings for fewest goals for, and some of last year's top performers like Doan and Dahlin are off to slower starts. The Sabres' power play and penalty kill percentages are some of the lowest in the league.
One of the biggest issues, though, is goaltending. Specifically, the play of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen's struggles
The stats have not been kind to Luukkonen this season. Despite a short run of wins early in November, he's been unable to steal games for the Sabres like he did last season.
Luukkonen has started 12 of the Sabres 20 games so far this season, and is 5-4-3. His basic stats are not good with an .867 save percentage, and a 3.51 goals-against average. Among goaltenders that have played over 400 minutes, UPL's save percentage is the worst in the league, while his goals-against average is fourth worst.
Diving deeper into the stats, his goals-saved above average is -6.88, the second worst among those same goaltenders. Perhaps the worst for him and his teammates are his high-danger scoring chances stats. His high-danger goals-against average is the second highest among those same goaltenders at 1.82, while his save percentage is 0.742. If he was facing one of the highest amount of these types of shots, it would be one thing. But Luukkonen's high danger shots faced ranks him 18th out of 37.
It's not all on Luukkonen, but as the goaltender with the most starts, more of the blame will come onto him. His backup, Colten Ellis, has a 3-3 record with one shutout. His goals-against average is still far too high at 3.39. He's also not used to being the full-time backup, mostly filling in for Alex Lyon who was hurt to start the season.
Yes, the stats are bad, but how does this actually impact the Sabres?
The Sabres struggles
While goaltending isn't the only issue facing the Sabres, they are definitely expecting more from Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen as the starting goaltender. The Sabres have the worst goals against per game in the Eastern Conference with 3.59 goals against per game. Especially when the offense is struggling—the Sabres are ranked 11th in goals for per game—the team needs every save they can get.
Lukkonen's goals-saved above average being -6.88 is a really difficult stat for any team to survive. The lack of expected saves and goals make it very difficult for a team to win. Having a goaltender who's goals-saved above average is below even one means that the team just isn't getting the saves that they need.
When the Sabres finished the season in 2025-26, they were fifth in goals scored per game, and were 11th best in goals-against per game. Luukkonen ended last season with a .910 save percentage and a 2.52 goals-against average. Without those stats getting better, the Sabres just don't have what they need to get ahead.
One good sign for Sabres fans? Alex Lyon is back and ready to go, and could help with some of their struggles between the pipes.
Add us as a preferred source on Google