Buffalo Sabres winger Zach Benson is 20 years old and already owns 146 games of NHL experience. Although his baseline numbers — 21 goals and 37 assists — don't show it yet, the 2023 first-round pick is on a path toward becoming one of the league's best two-way players.
Benson, much like teammate Rasmus Dahlin in his early seasons, is trying to overcome a losing environment and mediocre teammates during his most vital development years. It took a moment, but Dahlin eventually emerged as one of the NHL's best defensemen.
A similar story is going to play out with the 5-foot-10 energetic forward. In fact, don't be surprised if his breakout season arrives in 2025-26 and he finds himself firmly in the All-Star conversation on an annual basis for the foreseeable future.
Not buying the Benson hype? Maybe these three statistics, which were posted by a 19-year-old player on team that missed the playoffs by 12 points, will change your mind.
5-on-5 expected goals for percentage (xGF%)
Benson in 2024-25: 54.9%
It was Benson — not Dahlin, Tage Thompson or Alex Tuch — who led the Sabres in xGF% last season, according to Natural Stat Trick. It marked a sizable improvement from an already impressive rookie season where he was one of the Sabres' top players in that key analytics category (51.4%).
What makes his terrific on-ice metrics from last year even more promising is the fact he played 31% of his 5-on-5 minutes alongside Peyton Krebs, a certified offensive black hole. Yet, even when on a line with Krebs, the former Winnipeg Ice standout delivered a 53.4 xGF%, per NST.
Now, the door is open for Benson to potentially jump from the muddled middle of Buffalo's forward group to the top line. If he can deliver those type of numbers with Krebs, imagine his upside if he's playing alongside Thompson and a healthy Josh Norris?
Tage in particular is a defensive magnet. Opponents always shift their focus toward the potential 50-goal scorer, and rightfully so. That's going to create a lot more space in high-danger areas for the Canadian rising star to start elevating his offensive game.
Shots from the inner slot
Benson in 2024-25: 61 of 120 (50.8%, via NHL EDGE)
Benson's immense hockey IQ is at the core of this stat. Why? Because he's well aware he doesn't have a lethal shot. He's not going to stand at the top of the circles and blast a puck past the goalie like Thompson or send a hard wrister through traffic like Dahlin. That's not his game.
Instead, he's already established himself as a hardworking net-front presence. It's incredibly promising that more than half his shots at age 19 came from the most dangerous areas of the ice. It illustrates his understanding of what it's going to take for him to become an effective attacking player.
Yes, the fact he only parlayed that into 10 goals last season (more on that in the next section) shows finishing is still an area where there's room for improvement. He can also become more effective in terms of tips/deflections while standing in front.
That said, betting on a player who gets to the top of the crease and does the dirty work is a far wiser investment than a one-trick pony who doesn't have a Plan B beyond a good shot. After all, a majority goals in the NHL are scored from those close-range areas.
Individual expected goals (ixG)
Benson in 2024-25: 18.3 (via NST)
Even though Benson only lit the lamp 10 times in 75 games last season, the underlying metrics suggest he should have been closer to the 20-goal mark. Some of that is bad luck and some of it is needing to become a better finisher.
Former Buffalo Sabres star Sam Reinhart, who plays a similar brand of hockey to Benson and is now one of the NHL's most valuable players for the Florida Panthers, scored a modest 17 goals in his second full season in Buffalo. He's now averaging 40 a year for the Cats.
Will Benson ever score 40 goals (or 57 like Reino did in 2023-24)? Perhaps not. Reinhart does have a little more size (6'1'', 196 pounds) that helps him in those net-front situations. But there's no reason playing the same style can't lead to 30-plus goals at the Sabres winger's peak.
All told, the numbers suggest Benson should have scored 18 times in 2024-25 and now he's likely headed for a substantial increase in offensive-zone deployment if he's on a line with Thompson. Add some additional power-play time and the ingredients for a breakout are in place.
Enjoy the ride, Sabres fans.