It remains unclear whether the Buffalo Sabres and veteran winger Alex Tuch will be able to reach an agreement on a long-term contract extension before he can become an unrestricted free agent in July.
The most recent updates suggest Tuch, who will turn 30 in May, is seeking an eight-year deal with an annual salary around $10.5 million, while the Sabres have offered “somewhere in the eights.” That's a large gap to close in just over three months.
Adam Gretz of Bleacher Report projected the 6-foot-4 power forward as one of the four impending free agents who "will get overpaid" this summer, and listed the Chicago Blackhawks and Columbus Blue Jackets as potential suitors on the open market.
"Chicago comes to mind, assuming he would want to join a team that is not quite a lock to contend right away," Gretz wrote. "Columbus also seems intriguing, given the salary-cap space it will have this offseason as it tries to add the missing piece or two that it might need to really become a serious Stanley Cup contender."
The NHL analyst noted both organizations have the financial flexibility to "take the risk" on a player whose on-ice performance may not match his contract by the latter stages of the deal.
Tuch has recorded 59 points (29 goals and 30 assists) in 68 appearances this season while playing in all three phases for a Sabres squad that's emerged as a surprising Stanley Cup contender.
Buffalo Sabres, other NHL teams must determine whether a short-term Alex Tuch boost is worth a long-term investment
Tuch is a player every team would love on their roster. He's a strong offensive producer who isn't afraid to do the dirty work along the boards and in front of the net. He's also proven his value in every facet of the sport, whether it's even strength, the power play or the penalty kill.
Paying the Syracuse native, who grew up rooting for the Sabres, a double-digit AAV on a short-term contract would be palatable. Not so much on a seven- or eight-year agreement, though.
In January, Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic estimated Tuch's market value on a long-term extension at $7.1 million annually. That's based on the average of the entire deal. By the back end, he forecasts the winger will only be a ~$5 million player, so you'll be paying him double his production.
Here's the problem for Buffalo: someone's likely going to give him his desired contract.
Whether it's the Blue Jackets, Hawks or another organization with cap space to weaponize, at least one general manager will surely be willing to meet Tuch's demands and worry about the consequences later.
It's easy to say the Sabres should do the same, especially since the 2014 first-round draft pick has become a key franchise pillar both on the ice and in the locker room, but it's not that simple.
Buffalo general manager Jarmo Kekalainen has other free agents to worry about, led by UFA Beck Malenstyn and RFAs Zach Benson, Peyton Krebs and Michael Kesselring, and has a modest $13.2 million in cap space to work with, per PuckPedia.
Giving Tuch something around $10.5 million per season would have a trickle-down effect, so handing the American forward a blank check to ensure he stays isn't a wise route.
Instead, Kekalainen may be forced to play the waiting game. See if getting to play some playoff games in downtown Buffalo gets Tuch to consider a "hometown discount," or let him test free agency to see if his market is a little softer than expected.
The Sabres, a sudden contender to finish atop the Eastern Conference, are finally turning a corner and could be setting themselves up for sustained success. The front office has to proceed with caution when deciding how to spend money in the immediate future, though.
Whether Tuch will fit in the equation is the biggest question, and other teams like Chicago and Columbus will begin circling like sharks if an extension isn't reached.