The Buffalo Sabres are going to do everything in their power to retain impending unrestricted free agent Alex Tuch, but the 29-year-old winger's best option, at least from a financial perspective, is hitting the open market in July.
That became even more clear Thursday when Matt Larkin of Daily Faceoff ranked Tuch as the No. 1 NHL free agent available this summer. The 6-foot-4 power forward has steadily climbed UFA lists as a once-rich class was decimated by star players re-signing with their current teams.
"But now the Sabres have, hopefully, many more months to win Tuch's heart," Larkin wrote. "He had already expressed a strong desire to stay in Buffalo before the season started; if he can do so knowing he's part of a Stanley Cup contender, his odds of re-signing skyrocket. All Buffalo has to do is meet what should be a significant asking price in the $10 million to $11 million range."
The reported asking price from the Syracuse native, who grew up rooting for the Sabres, has remained relatively constant in that $10.5 million ballpark since last summer.
Neither Buffalo general manager this season, first Kevyn Adams and now Jarmo Kekalainen, has appeared willing to make that type of commitment on an eight-year extension. It's understandable because it's highly unlikely that type of contract would age well.
NHL insider Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet previously reported the Sabres offered Tuch a new deal "somewhere in the eights." That feels like fair-market value after Nick Schmaltz of the Utah Mammoth signed an eight-year contract with an $8 million AAV on Wednesday.
Yet, so far the 2014 first-round pick hasn't appeared interested in reducing his contract demands despite the club's recent on-ice success, which includes taking over the Atlantic Division lead.
Having an opportunity to enter free agency as the clear best player available is enticing, and it could ultimately spell the end of his tenure in Buffalo.
Alex Tuch is staring down a key offseason decision: Stay with the Buffalo Sabres or maximize his next contract's value
The Sabres would likely be more willing to strongly consider a double-digit AAV on a shorter-term extension. A three-year deal feels like the sweet spot in that regard. There's been no indication Tuch is willing to accept that type on agreement, though.
If the Boston College product, who'll turn 30 in May, is focused solely on a max-length contract without bringing the dollar value down, Buffalo probably won't be able to compete.
Kekalainen has an estimated $13.2 million in salary-cap space available for 2026-27, according to PuckPedia. Here's a list of the other free agents he'll have to make decisions on:
- UFA: Beck Malenstyn, Logan Stanley, Luke Schenn, Tanner Pearson, Josh Dunne
- RFA: Zach Benson, Peyton Krebs, Michael Kesselring
None of the UFAs are must-sign players, though Malenstyn has become a critical piece of the Sabres' fourth line. The Sabres will probably want to retain all three of the RFAs.
In turn, there's simply no way to pay Tuch around $10.5 million while also keeping Benson, Krebs and Kesselring without a series of other moves to clear cap space.
Buffalo has also been heavily linked to St. Louis Blues center Robert Thomas since the days leading up to the 2026 NHL trade deadline last week. He carries an $8.125 million cap hit if the Sabres decide to circle back on that idea over the summer.
So, there are a lot of variables and it could translate to a busy summer for the team's front office.
That's why the ball is mostly in Tuch's court. If he wants to continue wearing the Blue and Gold, there feels like a path to an agreement available if he's willing to reduce his ask closer to what Schmaltz just received from the Mammoth.
Otherwise, if his main goal is making sure the final major contract he signs in the NHL includes every possible dollar — that's certainly his right after playing under a team-friendly $4.75 million AAV in recent years — it's hard to see a path to staying in Buffalo.
While his departure would give the Sabres more financial flexibility, trying to replace a player who's on pace for 72 points while filling a key role in all three phases would be an uphill battle.
Kekalainen, along with the entire Buffalo fanbase, will hope Tuch eventually shows a willingness to consider a "hometown discount." Perhaps getting a chance to see how crazy the city gets for playoff hockey will be the turning point in negotiations.