Buffalo Sabres fans: it’s now been a week since our last draft lottery simulation, which means it’s time for an update!
With updated standings, a few teams moving around and the odds of winning the draft lottery altered appropriately, it’s time to run our simulation again.
As it stands right now, the Buffalo Sabres have an overall record of 24-29-7 for 55 points on the season.
With that being said, it means the Buffalo Sabres have another chance at the coveted first-overall selection in the NHL Draft this June.
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The Edmonton Oilers are currently the worst team in the league with 50 points in 61 games; the Leafs have 50 points in 58 games, while the Jets have 54 points in 59 games. The Sabres have 55 in 60.
With the standings as they currently are, the Edmonton Oilers still have the best chance at winning the first-overall selection (20%).
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a 13.5 percent chance, while Winnipeg has an 11.5 percent chance.
Meanwhile, the Buffalo Sabres have a 9.5 percent chance at that first-overall selection.
Other teams in the running: Columbus, Calgary, Vancouver, Arizona, Montreal, Ottawa, Colorado, Philadelphia, Carolina and New Jersey.
The Devils have the lowest chance of winning the lottery, with a measly (but still existent) one percent chance.
So – let’s run the simulator, shall we? I’m using NHLLotterySimulator.com for these purposes.
Yuck. What’s the luck that on our first draft lottery simulator run this time around, the Leafs get the first-overall pick?
With this turn, the Buffalo Sabres end up at fifth, which is still a respectable pick, though obviously not nearly as coveted as top-three. And what Sabres fan wants to see the Leafs get a chance at Auston Matthews?!
No thanks… let’s try again.
Sigh. Toronto first overall again? And the Sabres picking fifth overall yet again?
Let’s try it one more time.
…………… are you kidding me? AGAIN?!?! Man, if I didn’t know any better, I’d think Leafs fans fixed this just to mess with me.
At any rate, I ran the simulator 97 more times, for a total of 100.
Of those 100 times, the Buffalo Sabres picked first overall 15 times. They had a top-three pick 36 times, including 10 second-overall selections and 11 third-overall picks.
Other picks that came up for the Buffalo Sabres: fourth (6), fifth (23), sixth (26) and 7th (9).
The Edmonton Oilers were in the top three 56 times, and led all teams with 19 first-overall selections. Toronto also picked first 15 times, with Winnipeg getting the top selection 13 times.
With all seven Canadian teams currently out of playoff spots, there’s a decent chance the top three draft picks could be a Canadian sweep. In my simulation, that happened 68 times.
And in the end, only one of 100 simulations had a top three without at least one Canadian team.
Here’s the complete results:
While the real draft lottery is still a few months away, and the draft itself a few months beyond that, it’s still interesting to see how things could wind up when the day comes.
Next: Lehner Tops Weekly Stars
Any thoughts on the upcoming draft, the Buffalo Sabres or the draft lottery? Share yours in the comments below.