In our last few runs at the NHL draft lottery simulator, the Edmonton Oilers have always had the best chance at the first-overall pick, as the worst team in the league.
The Buffalo Sabres remain in the top few teams among the chance at the top pick, with an 8.5 percent chance, but there’s a new team with the best chance.
That team? The Toronto Maple Leafs, who now have a 20% chance of winning the draft lottery heading into NHL action on March 7.
With that change, I thought it only appropriate to try running the simulator again and seeing how things turn out this time around.
The Oilers have a 13.5 percent chance, while the Flames have an 11.5 percent chance. Winnipeg, Buffalo, Columbus, Arizona, Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa, New Jersey, Colorado, Carolina and Philadelphia also have a chance at winning the first-overall pick.
As in the past, we’re using NHLLotterySimulator.com for this — so let’s have at it.
Alright, this isn’t too bad for the Buffalo Sabres. It’s not a first-overall pick, but hey, second isn’t bad. (See: Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel).
It’s also a plus because although the Sabres didn’t get the first pick, neither did any other Eastern Conference team. So while Auston Matthews could certainly help the ‘Yotes, well, at least he wouldn’t have a chance to do TOO much damage to the Buffalo Sabres.
Well, we’ll certainly take that! It only took two tries to get the Buffalo Sabres a first-overall selection.
Again, this one also has its perks, with both of the other top-two picks going to Western Conference teams.
Well, this is…. different.
The Devils had just a three percent chance at winning the first overall pick, and it only took three simulations to get them there. The Sabres drop all the way to seventh with these results, which… sigh.
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After 97 more simulations, here’s how things turned out.
The Buffalo Sabres ended up with the first-overall pick 17 times; the second-overall pick 15 times, and the third-overall pick just six times. In the end, that’s 38/100 times the Buffalo Sabres chose in the top three.
Other picks for the Buffalo Sabres: fifth (10 times), sixth (33 times), and seventh (19 times).
It’s actually a bit of a surprise, considering the odds, but the Buffalo Sabres had the most first-overall picks in my 100 simulations. The Leafs had 13, while the Flames had 12. The Oilers had 11.
In 24 simulations (compared to last week’s 27), all three of the top picks went to a Canadian team.
And as with the past two week’s simulations, just one of the 100 simulations did not have a Canadian team in the top three.
The Sabres had 88 top-three picks this week, compared to just 28 last week, and 36 the week prior — though Buffalo’s chance at the top pick (8.5%) remained the same from last week.
In the end, it’s all a numbers game, but there’s only one real chance at winning the draft lottery.
Next: Lehner Leads Weekly Stars
Let’s see how the rest of the season plays out.